First off, I want to apologise. Content has been lacking from me over the past seven days. Sunday, I was "out-of-office" playing in the British American Football Association National Flag Football League Division 1 Finals. It absolutely bucketed it down, but we came away with the plate, which meant we improved on our 12th seeding to finish 9th in the country. But what about the other days? I "blame" working every day, being ill from being out in the rain for so long, and a loss of executive function due to burnout. But I should be better this upcoming week with work letting up and me forcing myself out of bed.
Anyways, this week we go bird hunting in Glendale as we visit State Farm Stadium to face the .500 Arizona Cardinals. Hopefully, Hutch can have Kyler running like a toddler.
Kicker in the Balls: This week, we see a familiar face at the kicker position in Matt Prater. So far this season, he is 100% at all of his kicks, both field goals and extra points, with a long of 57 yards. He also handles kickoffs for the Cards, where he ranks 31st in the league with an average of 61.3 yards, and a 78.6% touchback rate which is 12th.
On our side, we arguably have the younger version of Prater. Bates is also 100% of his kicks, though his longest so far this season is only 35 yards. However, we also saw in the UFL that he can nail kicks from long range. Bates is 11th in the league in kickoff average with 64.8 yards, and a 90% touchback rate which is 3rd.
It's going to be interesting to see who looks better tomorrow, as it could be said that Detroit is maybe regretting letting go of Prater as we haven't had a stable option at kicker since we let him walk. However, with Bates, we might have something worth keeping around, someone who could develop into what Prater was for most of his time here; a reliable option at all ranges, including 50+ yards.
Hold On Tight to Stay Safe: The birds will be down to their third-string right tackle on Sunday, as Jonah Williams is on IR and Kelvin Beachum is nursing an injury. Whoever is playing there will likely have a tight end playing on their shoulder to try and slow down future DPOY Hutch as much as possible.
It might be McBride some of the time, but he is like LaPorta in that he is too good of a weapon catching the ball to just use to block all the time (76.8 PFF pass-blocking grade on 2 such snaps). The tight end who has the most pass-blocking snaps for Arizona is former Lions fans' draft crush out of Illinois, Tip Reiman. He has been a blocker on 22.2% of his passing snaps (4/18), earning a 73.9 grade for his work. Elijah Higgins is the only other Cardinals tight end to have played a pass-blocking snap, giving up a pressure on that solitary snap for a 67.1 grade. In fact, these tight ends have given up a pressure on each of their pass-blocking snaps.
If whoever bookends Hutch on Sunday (likely Davenport returning from his groin injury that kept him out last week) can be disciplined and not let Kyler escape into his blindside, Hutch could rack up more sacks on what is proving to be an All-Pro calibre season so far.
Triple-Headed Monster: Arizona have a good running attack, plain and simple. While rookie Trey Benson hasn't exactly hit the ground running (14 carries, 23 yards, 2 first downs, 35.7% success rate, 46.9 rushing PFF grade), this might be due to the run blocking (0.6 yards before contact per attempt, 64.9 team run-blocking grade [15th in the league]).
Maybe that excuse doesn't track though as other players are doing much better for the Cardinals. Lead back James Conner has 172 yards on 37 carries (4.6 ypa) for 13 first downs, 2 touchdowns, a 45.9% success rate and a 63.8 rushing grade. However, it's arguable that the main threat on the ground is Kyler, who has an 85.7 rushing grade from PFF. He has toted the ball 10 times for 11.6 yards, 5 first downs, and a 70% success rate. Even third-string back Emari Demercado has been getting in on the action with 2 carries for 46 yards, a 100% success rate, 1 first down and a 91.6 rushing grade.
The good news is that we are still one of the best defences against backs in the league. The bad is that we saw what Baker did to us last week on a couple of plays, and Kyler is a bigger threat with his legs than Baker is.
The way we could combat this is arguably something we've been doing a lot this season, something I call the Justin Fields gameplan (as we employed it to great effect against Fields in 2022); five-man fronts and zone defence so all defenders have eyes on the QB.
While we're still running Cover 1 at a high rate compared to the rest of the league (37.3% versus 21.4%), we're also running quarters at an above-average rate (17.5% versus 15.7%) and Cover 0 at a below-average rate (4% versus 4.1%). The Lions are also blitzing at a below-average rate (24.6% compared to 30.2%), especially against the run (13.6% against 29.5%). This low blitz rate may be due to our running "base" formations on 54.8% of our plays (4-3-4 on 43.7%), and running 3-3-5 nickel on 36.5% of plays. In essence, the SAM linebacker is playing a hell of a lot of snaps, allowing Glenn to have flexibility in his playcalls as to what the front does. He could have Barnes (for ease of explanation as he is our "starting" SAM) rush the passer, set the edge or drop back into coverage depending on the look the offence gives. Having Barnes setting the edge on the shoulder of the DE could help contain Kyler and force him to use his arm, negating the biggest threat of the offence.
Hot Take: With the defensive line looking to contain Kyler as much as possible, the interior combines for 2 sacks and a host of hits and hurries.
Score Prediction: Our red zone offence needs some work for sure, but this Cardinals defence is not that of the Bucs. Likewise, while the rushing threat of the Cardinals is greater than that of both the Rams and Bucs, their passing weapons are not up to their level. This could be close if Kyler is given space to run, but we bounce back to avoid back-to-back defeats.
Arizona Cardinals 17, Detroit Lions 31
How do you see the game going? Will the Lions get back to winning ways, or will the bird hunt end with naught to show for it?
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look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts