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Writer's pictureAsh Soden

Decrypting the Morse Code

It's the Mac Attack this week, as the Trevor Lawrence-less Jags come to Ford Field to become the next victims in our march to the Super Bowl. Of course, history would say that this will be a cakewalk, especially since we have won four straight games against Jacksonville dating back to 2012.


But what do my lovely stats and grades say about some of the key matchups in tomorrow's game? Let's take a peek, shall we?

 

Tackling the Issue: The Jags traded away their starting left tackle to the Vikes a few weeks ago, which pushed Walker Little into the starting lineup. Their offensive line was already pretty bleh by this point, so this weakened them further. With our edge room in a mini-revitalisation right now with Paschal returning to the starting lineup last week, and with the new shiny toy of Za'Darius Smith entering the fro, how will the Jags' tackles handle our rush?


Little was a second-round pick out of Stanford in 2021, playing the most snaps of his career with 659. This season, he's started the past three games, with his play improving every week according to PFF (57.0, 62.7 and 73.3 grades). This is perhaps fueled by an improvement in pass pro last week. In Weeks 8 and 9, he gave up 3 pressures in each game. Last week, he was perfect in pass pro, not surrendering a pressure on his 27 pass-blocking snaps for an 89.6 pass-blocking grade. Throughout his career, Little has graded out better as a pass-blocker than as a run-blocker, so it would track that he would get to this point. However, the inverse is true this season with a season-long pass-blocking grade of 63.3 and a run-blocking grade of 68.7. This would make him a fairly stable tackle to go against on Sunday, with neither a stand-out trait (like Penei's run-blocking) but also not a major deficiency to pick out aside from a relative lack of experience due to his backup role in the first three and a bit seasons of his pro career.


Josh Paschal, in the games where we've had a starting edge opposite him (i.e. pre-Hutch injury), has lined up over the LT on roughly two-thirds of his snaps. With Za'Darius Smith starting tomorrow, as mentioned above, this means he will be facing Little more often than not. Paschal had also "started" three games, though he would have started more if he wasn't injured in Week 7 which meant he missed Weeks 8 and 9. Paschal has earned himself a 59.5 grade from PFF so far this season, though this is heavily influenced by his 54.4 pass-rushing grade as all of his other grades are above the 60.0 mark. Paschal's grade is low in this respect as he usually is playing the big-end "can crusher" role where his main job is to act as the guy the rush end can play off to get their pressures and sacks. However, since taking on more snaps since the Davenport injury, Paschal has gotten at least two pressures a game, including a sack in each of his past two games (Weeks 7 and 10). Paschal's main influence on the game is in the run department, as evidenced by the lack of edge contain during his time out with injury. Since taking over for Davenport in the big end role, he has gotten at least one run stop, including 4 most recently against the Texans. Against Little, it appears to be a net-neutral in the passing game, but I expect Paschal to be dominant in the run game, setting an edge to stop Etienne from bouncing runs outside.


Anton Harrison is Jacksonville's right tackle, which makes him Smith's first meal as a Detroit Lion. A first-rounder last year out of Oklahoma, Harrison has started every game at RT for the Jags so far this season. After a shaky start to the year against Miami and Cleveland (where he faced Smith on 16 snaps), Harrison has returned to a replacement-level starter status with an overall 58.2 offensive grade, comprised of a 48.0 run-blocking and a 62.7 pass-blocking grade. On the season, Harrison has a 96.1% pass-blocking efficiency, having given up 22 pressures (3 sacks, 2 QB hits and 17 hurries). Therefore, matchup-wise, Harrison is especially susceptible in the run game but can hold his own pass-blocking-wise.


After the team gave him an informal bye week last week, a rested Smith will slot into the lineup in the rush-end role that is the usual spot for Hutch over the RT. In his previous spot in Cleveland, Smith was a productive pass-rusher, averaging 3 pressures a game including a season total of 5 sacks and 2 QB hits, earning him a 71.1 pass-rushing grade. Smith is also productive in the run game, averaging just over a run stop a game and a 65.9 run defence grade. In his matchup against Harrison earlier this season, Smith got two hurries but did not register a single tackle. Smith's weakness is his tackling, as he has missed 21.7% of his tackle attempts so far this season, earning him a 39.3 tackling grade from PFF, and he sports a career 15.5% missed tackle rate. This suggests that some runs towards his side of the line could break out for longer gains. Therefore, we can maybe expect the linebackers to shade over towards the right-hand side of the line to attempt to cover this weakness.

 

Catching On: The Jags hit on a great receiver in the first round this year, having taken Brian Thomas Jr. 23rd overall in the draft. He plays the X role that Tim Patrick has taken up after months of me going on about needing someone who can fill that role after Josh Reynolds departed for Denver. He leads the Jags in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns, as well as PFF receiving grade. So far this season, Thomas Jr. has caught 67.3% of his 55 targets for 16.4 yards per reception, getting 60.7 yards, 2.6 first downs and 0.5 touchdowns per game. He sports a 79.0 receiving grade, a 62.5% receiving success rate, a 44.4% contested catch rate, a 9.8% drop rate, a 12.1-yard ADOT and 2.22 yards per route ran.


Thomas Jr. usually lines up on the right-hand side of the formation, which means he'll be opposite Carlton Davis III for the most part. Davis broke out for us last week with his two-interception game. On the season, he sports a 71.1 coverage grade from PFF, having allowed catches on 61% of the targets towards him for 11.9 yards a catch, a 15% forced incompletion rate, 5 PBUs, the aforementioned 2 interceptions and a further dropped one. His targets are at an average of 9.8 yards downfield. Thomas Jr. has roughly 3 inches height advantage over Davis, but I expect Davis to still be competitive at the catch point.


Gabe Davis is the other outside starter for Jacksonville, playing that field-stretching Z role that Jamo has in our offence. He has caught 48.7% of his targets of his 39 targets so far this year for 12.4 yards a reception, or 26.2 yards, 1.44 first downs and 0.22 touchdowns a game. His success rate is almost as poor as his catch rate, as it is a lowly 43.6%. Davis has dropped 9.5% of his targets, has a 22.2% contested catch rate, an ADOT of 14.0 yards, and averages a yard per route ran. His PFF receiving grade is a below-average 55.5. It seems in a pseudo-Golladay situation, Davis was made by Josh Allen and away from him, the grass isn't greener.


Given that Davis usually lines up on the left-hand side of the formation, he will likely be facing off against rookie Terrion Arnold. Arnold, while he is having some rookie struggles, has been quietly getting better recently. He has given up a catch on 65.6% of his coverage targets on a 10.6-yard ADOT for 11.4 yards a catch, a 9% forced incompletion rate and 4 PBUs. Arnold going up against Davis might be a good reset for him, as Davis isn't a great receiver. While his deep speed might put Arnold in situations like the DPI against Hutchinson last week, Davis doesn't have a varied route tree and for the most part is best deployed as a clearout option, meaning Arnold will have less processing to do and can almost trust himself to play by instinct rather than overthinking.

 

Covering Up: Those who listened to our preview podcast (apologies for missing that, I was at work) know that the Jags run a Dennis Allen-style system that uses split-shell concepts as its base. This is because the Jags' DC is Ryan Nielsen, who was the DL coach under Allen from 2017 to 2022 before he left for Atlanta to become their DC for the season before coming to Jacksonville as DC after the clearout in Atlanta. There are quite a few connections between Nielsen and the Lions. Firstly, the obvious connection is that Glenn was the secondary coach and Campbell was the TE coach/assistant head coach in New Orleans before they came here. But additionally, Anzalone was a third-round pick and Al-Quadin Muhammad was a 6th-round pick in the year Nielsen was hired. Muhammad will know Nielsen especially as he was his position coach before the Saints cut him just before his sophomore season. Of course, these connections go the other way, and the same could be said for the Jags and our secondary coach/pass game coordinator DeShea Townsend, who held the same position in Jacksonville in 2022 and 2023 before coming to the light side of the (football) Force.


Looking at the Jags' secondary, they live in Cover-1 and -2, playing these coverages around 30% of the time each (31.6% C1, 29.6% C2). This is the 4th- and 1st-most in the league for each coverage (no prizes for who plays the most C1 in the league, but answers on the back of a postcard/in the comments if you want). However, Jacksonville also ranks 20th and 27th in EPA in these coverages, suggesting some issues. As highlighted in our preview podcast, the Jags rank in the bottom half of the league in EPA in all coverages, including a league-worst mark in Cover-0 and overall EPA per dropback. They also have the third-worst passing success rate allowed, and 7th-worst pass rush productivity on a league-low blitzing rate. Given these stats, it suggests that the Jags' pass rush isn't getting home which is making their corners have to cover for longer, leading to yards given up; a situation we know all too well.


Of their starters, the highest-graded per PFF is rookie sensation Jarrian Jones, a third-round pick this past draft from the ACC Champion and unfairly snubbed Florida State Seminoles (let me have it, it's been a rough 2024 season for me in college ball). He has a 62.6 coverage grade on the season, having allowed catches on 72.7% of his targets for 11.1 yards on a 5.8-yard ADOT, forcing a 9% incompletion rate, getting 3 PBUs and an interception. As much as I love Jarrian, Amon-Ra is going to have him on toast.


The best Jaguar on the outside is Tyson Campbell, who also sports a 62.6 coverage grade from PFF but has only played 5 games this season. He has a 59.1% completion rate in his coverage for 10.7 yards a completion on an 8.2-yard ADOT, and a 9% incompletion rate while breaking up 2 passes so far this season. On the other side of the defence is veteran Ronald Darby, who has a 59.8 coverage grade on the season. He has allowed a 73.1% completion rate on a 10.1-yard ADOT for 13.4 yards a reception and a 12% forced incompletion rate with 3 PBUs so far this season. With Jamo back and up-to-speed, and Tim Patrick now seemingly fully integrated into the offence, Goff could have a bounce-back game after last week's unlucky horror show against one of the league's worst secondary that hasn't been helped by its pass rush.

 

Hot Take: Jared Goff bounces back from last week, not turning the ball over with a three-touchdown performance.


Score Prediction: The Jags are fast becoming a perennial stomping ground for the league, looking more and more likely to become the first team to get the first overall pick thrice within three years. Despite the bad offensive performance in the first half last week, I can see our Lions getting back to usual business against the second of their AFC South foes in this stretch.


Detroit Lions 31, Jacksonville Jaguars 10


How do you see the game going? Will our Lions continue their charge towards the Super Bowl, or will the Jags bite back?

 

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Comments (4)

L K
L K
Aug 17

look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty

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xylo
xylo
Aug 16

Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?

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john.seelye
Oct 14, 2023

Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!

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Jerimy Walker
Jerimy Walker
Apr 30, 2023

Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts

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