I Would Love It If We Beat Them

Once a year or so, I decide to drop some random British meme as the theme of the preview article. This is that time this year.

This man is Kevin Keegan. He was the manager of Newcastle United in the Premier League at the time. His team had just won 1-0 against Leeds United on the 29th of April, 1996, with only two matches left to go in the season with them on a three-game winning streak. So, to quote the youth, why was man so vexed?

It was because of the comments of the manager of the team who Keegan's Newcastle was battling for the title, a certain Sir Alec Ferguson of Manchester United. Fergie had cast doubts over the level of effort teams facing Newcastle would put in compared to when they faced Manchester United, insinuating that if Newcastle won those games and the league title, it would be because of that. Ferguson is the Premier League's version of Belichick; a hard-assed manager who demanded results and got them frequently and whose team subsequently went down the toilet after their retirement. So for him to almost play some psychological warfare on his opposition wasn't out of the realm of possibility.

This led to Keegan's rant in his post-match interview after the Leeds game, stating "[...] I'll tell you, you can tell him [Ferguson] now if you're watching it, we're still fighting for this title, and he's got to go to Middlesbrough and get something, and... and... I'll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat them, love it!"

This didn't go so well for Keegan's Newcastle team as they went on to draw both of their last two games, capitulating the league title to Fergie's United from a 12-point lead to finishing 4 points behind them, with Blackburn Rovers' win the previous year the only time United had not come first in the then four-year history of the Premier League.

Why is this relevant to our divisional matchup against Green Bay? It's not really, it's just me trying to avoid going down the same old track of using songs with Love in the title, while still making a play on the name of the QB we'll be facing. Even so, I would love it if we beat Green Bay on Sunday, I would bloody love it.

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What's Love Got to Do With It?: Yes, I know what I literally just wrote but I can't resist, the power of the song puns is just too strong.

The debate this week has been about which QB we'd rather face out of Love and Willis. Of course, reports are that it will be starter Love, but that means nothing to me (yes, I'm stooping as low as to make a tennis pun). The dilemma was whether it was better to face Love's passing or Willis' running, but the stats suggest that the difference between the two through the air is closer than one would think.

While Love has thrown for more yards (1547) and TDs (15), and has a greater passing success rate (45.2%) and air yards per attempt (9.2), Willis has the better of the starter in several categories. Willis has the better completion percentage (74.4%), adjusted completion rate (84.2%), touchdown rate (7.7%), interception rate (0%), yards per attempt (9.7), adjusted yards per attempt (11.3), yards per completion (13.1), passer rating (130.3), QBR (88.0), on target throw percentage (82.1%), PFF passing grade (74.3), EPA per play (0.368) and completion rate over expectation (5.6%). This suggests that if Willis were to play, we wouldn't be facing a Levis-style gunslinger who would be firing bullets all over the place like a German machine gun on the first day of the Somme. Of course, this is partly because LaFleur is a competent play-caller who adjusts his scheme to his QB, a wild premise I know.

Therefore, maybe we should be thankful it is a banged-up Love we are seeing tomorrow as an efficient passer who can scramble to get more time for his receivers to get open or to get up a rush lane to escape pressure could have spelt issues for our depleted pass rush corps. It doesn't help that our defence is 25th in rushing yards given up to QBs per game (26.9), so Willis could have caused us issues there. This being said, as hinted by Jeremy Reisman on the weekly Madden stream, don't be surprised if Willis has some sub-package snaps tomorrow, which renders the debate useless in a sense.

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Catch My Love: Of course, we also have to factor in who is catching the passes.

To the surprise of probably many people who aren't Nevada fans, Romeo Doubs has been their best outside receiver, not the guy they traded up for in that draft out of NDSU. He has caught 66.7% of his targets for 14.8 yards per reception, 54.9 yards, 3 first downs and 0.29 TDs per game, with a 62.5% receiving success rate, 7.1% drop rate, a 71.4% contested catch rate, on a 13.2 yard ADOT and 1.79 yards per route ran. This has earned him a 71.8 receiving grade from PFF.

In the slot, it's the former Laconian (get it?) Jayden Reed, who has been excelling this year in a role that puts him in the position to be a Walmart Amon-Ra with a 67.3 receiving grade. He has caught 75.6% of his targets on a 7.6-yard ADOT for 16.4 yards per reception, 2.46 yards per route ran, a 51.2% success rate, 1.88 first downs and 0.38 TDs per game, along with an 85.7% contested catch rate and an 18.4% drop rate.

The other starting receiver is (the potentially overhype prospect) Christian Watson, who has perhaps been quietly efficient in his WR3 role with a 68.1 receiving grade. He has caught 65% of his targets with an ADOT of 14.9 yards for 15.1 yards per reception, 1.54 yards per route run, a 55% success rate, and 1.29 first downs and 0.29 TDs per game. He also has not dropped a pass so far this season and sports a 66.7% contested catch rate.

At tight end, the only notable guy is Tucker Kraft as the only other healthy one to have caught a pass has 3 targets on the year. Kraft has a 64.9 receiving grade from PFF this season, having caught 80% of his targets for 14.3 yards a catch, 1.74 first downs and 0.63 TDs a game, a 51.5% success rate, 1.58 yards per route ran, an ADOT of 4.4 yards, a 4% drop rate and a 0% contested catch rate (0/1).

So who will be covering who? By virtue of lining up in the slot, Reed will see Amik for the most part, which could be a slight issue as Reed has some speed, opening up the possibility of slot fades, though Amik has played well against the Packers before... Watson will have at least three inches of height advantage due to his 6'4 frame, but given his quickness I'd have Arnold over him if I could to help combat this. This would leave Davis covering Doubs, which is almost a dead heat in terms of height, and both are physical players. As for Kraft, I would use a combination of Branch and the linebackers to try and keep him quiet, especially on third downs where he could be used as a chain mover.

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Can't Hurry Love: Be proud of me, I was tempted to go with Phil Collins but we gotta honour Motown.

According to websites that track team EPA, Green Bay is either the 8th- or 9th-best run defence in the league, allowing roughly -0.13 EPA per rush. They also rank 10th in rush yards allowed per game (111.6) and yards per attempt allowed (4.3). However, they rank 19th in rush success rate allowed with 40.9%, and 21st in first downs by rushing allowed per game (7.25). This difference is hard to reconcile, especially when you add a third metric with their 23rd ranking in PFF run defence grade (58.9).

It could be a matter of personnel usage, but GB ranks 9th in base formation usage with 28%, 15th in nickel (68%), 23rd in dime (2.9%), and 17th in usage of "other" personnel sets. It could be a matter of blitzing, as they rank below the NFL average in blitzing on 1st and 2nd downs, as well as on 3rd-and-shorts, but they rank 6th in run blitz rate (29.9%) and 9th in run stunt rate (4.9%).

Therefore, it has to be their personnel. Of their starting front seven, only three own above-average run defence grades; these being the edges Rashan Gary (68.3) and Preston Smith (68.5), and linebacker Eric Wilson (74.8). The team ranks 31st in missed tackles with 67, with only Smith and Gary the only starters posting missed tackles rates lower than 10%. The bad news for Green Bay is that their worst run-defending starters according to PFF is their interior duo of Kenny Clark (54.4) and T.J. Slaton (38.8).

What does this mean for our Lions? The only starter on our offensive line with a below-average run-blocking grade from PFF is Graham with a 57.7, and the only other starter grading below 74.8 in run-blocking is Decker with a 63.0. Both Monty and Gibbs are averaging above 3 yards after contact per carry, have breakaway percentages of over 21%, and are forcing missed tackles on nearly a quarter of their carries. Especially with the forecast for tomorrow's game being rain, expect us to lean on the run with the Packers' seeming deficiencies at defending it.

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Look of Love: Similarly, the Packers rank fairly high in EPA per dropback allowed (ranging between 7th and 9th) but rank low in success rate (between 28th and 30th). This is partly, okay largely, due to the 2.38 turnovers the defence generates per game which is the most in the league. They also rank 1st in percentage of defensive drives ending in a turnover (20%), and their 1.25 interceptions per game also ranks 3rd in the league. (Fun aside: the top 3 defences in generating turnovers, and interceptions in particular, call the NFC North home. It'll be no surprise who the odd team out is...). So, the stats suggest that if you don't throw an interception, you can move the ball on the Green Bay defence, as they rank 17th in net yards per attempt allowed (6.1).

The Packers disguise their coverages on 30.%% of their plays, which is 16th in the league. Despite Cover-3 being the Packers' base coverage, they rank 19th in its usage in the league (33.9%), and 23rd in EPA per play allowed (0.049). Their base man concept is Cover-1, which they run 22.7% of the time (17th-most in the league), allowing -0.337 EPA/play in this coverage (3rd-best). They also blitz on 47.6% of their plays in this coverage, which is the 5th-most of any team in the league, presumably to help their corners. Both of these are Middle of the Field Closed (MOFC) coverages, which GB runs on 56.6% of its plays (21st in the league) for -0.288 EPA/play (8th). They use MOFO (Middle Of Field Open) on 40.2% of plays (10th) for -0.118 EPA/play (9th).

If this is the case, why does Green Bay not lean into more man coverage? Partly this is because they seemingly have gotten takeaways in this coverage (as it allows FS Xavier McKinney to play single-high and jump any stray balls). The answer also seemingly lies in their personnel, just like with their run defence. The only starter who looks to be available for the Packers tomorrow with an above-average coverage grade is of course McKinney, with an 89.7 grade from PFF. This grade is largely helped by his league-leading 6 interceptions on the season. The other four presumed starters all have coverage grades below 55.5, including two sub-50 grades. For context, none of the Lions' starters have coverage grades below 50.1.

So how do we attack this? Firstly, we lean on the run as mentioned before. We can't have another game like Week 2. Secondly, we attack the middle of the field and the seams with Amon-Ra, LaPorta and the backs. Then, when the opportunity comes when McKinney is focused on the middle, especially with the use of play action, you use the speed of Kalif and the frame of Patrick to attack their outside corners in one-on-one situations. Sounds simple, right?

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Hot Take: Goff finally loses a fumble, but we force one of our own as part of another four-turnover day for our defence and special teams.

Score Prediction: The Packers are still a good squad, but they're also still working out some things, both offensively (the line) and defensively (bedding in the new scheme). This is something we can exploit, using our relative stability to weather any issues that occur, be it weather or play-based, to grind out the win.

Green Bay Packers 21, Detroit Lions 24

How do you see the game going? Will our Lions take another dub in Lambeau, or will the Packers stink up the weekend like the Minger?

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