Pack It Up, Pack It In
- Ash Soden
- Sep 6
- 6 min read
Updated: Sep 11
Well, we're finally here, football fans. Week 1 of the 2025 season is finally upon us, and that sweet, sweet adrenaline of a victory is there for the taking. Of course, our Lions start their season at their home away from home in Lion-beau Field (credit to Antony Fitzpatrick Esq. for that pun), taking on the Green Bay Packers. Just as I did last season, I will give you the three matchups I'll be keeping an eye on when Matt and I commentate the game live. Prepare for some stats, some scheme stuff, and a whole lot of me getting my predictions wrong in what looks to be a defensively themed game preview.
Parsing Out Parsons: There's one obvious place to start, and that's the guy the cheeseheads just traded for. Micah is a damn good pass rusher, but will he even play on Sunday afternoon with his back issue? For argument's sake, let's say he will play on a snap count due to the injury and his unfamiliarity with the full playbook.
The last time he did not play a full complement of snaps was in Week 10 of last season, when he was coming off an injury that had ruled him out for the five prior games. In that game, he played 37 snaps; 14 in run defence and 23 as a pass rusher. The bad news? He earned a 90.5 grade from PFF in that game, including a 92.1 pass rush grade. The good news? He scored a 50.3 grade in run defence. In the game, he created 5 pressures (2 sacks and 3 hurries), somehow got 2 run stops on 0 tackles, and forced a fumble.
In that game, he spent most of his snaps over the right tackle (22:13:2 right tackle: left tackle: inside ratio). As Rashan Gary has usually lined up over the left tackle when he plays (17:58:2 ratio in his two games against Detroit last season), Parsons will likely face Sewell most of the time if he plays (discounting any snaps where he is lined up as a blitzing stack backer). In his two games against Green Bay last year, Sewell allowed 5 pressures on 69 (nice) pass-blocking snaps, and in his last game against Parsons specifically (Week 17 of the 2023 season), Penei gave up 2 pressures on 38 pass-blocking snaps.
Therefore, while in the long run, Parsons could be a game-changer for Green Bay, the odds of that happening on Sunday are pretty low, based on his injury, lack of time practising with the Packers, and because we have the best offensive tackle in the league to stiffle him. Parsons might get a pressure or two, but this game could be a rude awakening to those who think the Pack are back on top just because they've mortgaged their future to add a pass rusher.
Furthermore, they have severely weakened the interior of their defensive line in the trade for Parsons, which brings me nicely onto my next topic...
Run Through Them Like a Hot Knife Through Cheddar: Perhaps an underrated aspect of the Parsons trade for those who aren't as invested as we Lions fans is how the Packers have sacrificed their run defence to try and improve their pass rush. Going the other way to Parsons, probably carrying a comedically large cheque to represent the two first-round picks, is star defensive tackle Kenny Clark.
Last season, Clark played 725 snaps for the Pack; 284 in run defence and 435 as a pass rusher. While his 60.0 PFF grade is the lowest of his career, this could be due to him playing in a new defence and having to adjust to the scheme. He had 34 pressures (1 sack), 28 solo tackles, 14 assisted tackles, an 8.7% missed tackle rate, and 21 run stops. These aren't great numbers for sure, but compared to the Lions' interior defenders from last season:
Only Levi and Alim had more pressures (47 and 45, respectively)
None made as many solo tackles (Levi had the most with 24)
Only one made half as many assisted tackles (Reader with 7), every other DT had 5 or fewer
No DT who played more than 200 snaps had a better missed tackle rate (Reader's was 9.5%, Wingo did not miss a tackle on his 177 snaps)
None had as many run stops (Levi was one off with 20 last season)
Therefore, it is not an insignificant part of their defence that Green Bay lost to acquire Micah.
In fact, while his 58.4 run defence grade looks bad, it ranked 49th of the 141 defensive tackles to play at least 100 run defence snaps last year, and topped his team. Second on the Packers last year was Devonte Wyatt with a 52.0 grade on 109 run defence snaps (74th), followed by Colby Wooden with a 47.7 grade on 102 run defence snaps (93rd). The onlt other veteran on the Packers' iDL is former Bowling Green star Karl Brooks, who logged a 39.7 grade on 155 qualifying snaps (t-123rd). Of course, it is really reductive to solely look at the defensive line to assess the whole team's run defence, but it should not be understated the large hole that Clark's departure leaves in Green Bay's run defence.
Last season, we averaged 117.5 yards on the ground, 3.6 yards a carry and a touchdown a game against Green Bay. We also averaged 1.6 yards before contact per rush and 3 broken tackles a game against the Pack last season. Despite the changing pieces on the offense, there is an obvious gameplan to beat Green Bay on Sunday, especially since their interior defensive line should resemble a slice of Swiss: run the damn ball!
Melt Them with the Deep Ball: Of course, we shouldn't let ourselves become one-dimensional on offence. We should still pass the ball, and there will be chances to do this. While one should expect improvement in Year 2 under DC Jeff Hafley, the Packers' outside corners do look like a weakness.
Their CB1 this season will likely be free agent signing Nate Hobbs. This seems like a slight "if you can't beat them, copy them" move by the Pack by signing the Raiders' slot corner and moving him outside like we did with Amik Robertson last season. Hobbs only played 19% of his defensive snaps last year at outside corner (104 out of 554), spending more time as a slot corner or in the box. He earned a 61.4 defensive grade, with a 61.5 coverage grade. He allowed a 67.4% completion rate (31/46) for 9 yards a reception, a 3:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 96.3 passer rating. On the other side will be return specialist Keisean Nixon, who spent 605 of his 1077 defensive snaps at outside corner last season (56.2%). He fared slightly better overall last season than Hobbs according to PFF, with a 64.1 defensive grade, though his coverage grade was lower with a 60.7. He allowed a 66.3% completion rate (57/86) for 9.3 yards a completion, a 5:1 touchdown:interception ratio and a 97.5 passer rating.
From our side of things, Goff had a good time against Green Bay last year. He completed 79.4% of his passes for 7 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception. While he did not register a big-time throw against the Pack last year according to PFF, he only had one turnover-worthy play over both games. His adjusted completion rate was above 80% in both games as well. While he won't hit the passing volume he did in Week 14 last year (43 dropbacks), this efficiency should continue as he will be able to prey on these weaker outside corners and any blitzing linebackers on third downs, leading to a good passing day.
Hot Take: Sonic and Knuckles combine for 150 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
Score Prediction: It's Week 1 and weird things can happen. But consistency and continuity are usually good bedfellows to performing well in crazy situations. Yes, people can point to the shiny new toy in "Titletown", but one player doth not maketh a team, otherwise we'd have been talking about a Dallas dynasty over the past few years. Yes, people will point to new coordinators, but if they actually looked into them they'll see how there won't be much change in terms of scheme or philosophy. We have the better head coach, better quarterback, better running back room, better receivers, less new pieces on the offensive line, a better defensive line, better linebackers, a better secondary, and better special teams. That baseline should win us the game, and continue our winning streak in Ford Field 2.0.
Green Bay Packers 20, Detroit Lions 34
How do you see the game going? Will Detroit start the season by putting Green Bay to the sword, or will they melt under the bright lights of Lambeau?
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look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts