Chicago's Tiny Johnson

Am I above making a cheeky innuendo? No. After last week's debacle, I think we all need a joke to lift our mood (Why did Tua open a bakery? Because he's great at making turnovers). Did you expect any less of me? Of course, most of my analysis last week just went out the window with how we performed last week. That won't stop me from trying again this week, as I once again bring you the three matchups I'll be looking at when the Bears roll into Ford Field.

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Amon-Ra on McCloud Nine: With Chicago's starting nickel corner ruled out with a hamstring injury, they will have to turn to their second-string guy in Nick McCloud. McCloud was a UDFA out of Notre Dame in the 2021 draft class. His most notable play in college was being hurdled by Najee Harris in the 2021 Rose Bowl, so maybe Jamo could replicate his play from last year against the Bears 👀

In his five years in the pros, McCloud has had one good season, which was 2023 with the Giants. In that season, he played 312 snaps, earning a 74.8 grade from PFF, though an 80.7 coverage grade props up this, as every other category was graded at 56.4 or less. Even within that season, McCloud had average coverage grades in all but two of his games that season, with a 91.3 grades against Washington in Week 11 (that 91.3 grade comes from intercepting his only target in that game while also registering a PBU), and a 90.9 grade against the Eagles in Week 18 where he only allowed three catches for 29 yards on his five targets. The next season, he was infamously cut by the Giants after refusing a mid-season pay cut on the one-year contract he signed that March. Yes, McCloud is the player that Joe Schoen told his agents not to "pay October's rent" and that "As soon as I can replace him, I'm going to replace him, I'm not f***ing around". After that, he signed with the 49ers' practice squad, was elevated to the active roster at the end of the month, and then signed a one-year deal with Chicago in the off-season.

With Gordon out last week, McCloud started last week. On Monday Night Football, McCloud played 46 snaps (25 coverage, 19 run defence, 2 blitzing). He earned a 44.1 grade from PFF, with a 55.1 in run defence, 56.8 in pass rush and 43.1 in coverage. He was targeted twice, allowing one catch for 2 yards, registering no other stats. Overall in his career, McCloud has allowed a 69% completion rate (nice) (60/87) for 11.7 yards per reception, 8 touchdowns, 5 PBUs and the aforementioned interception, earning him a 119.1 passer rating in coverage. McCloud has not registered a pressure since 2022, when he got a sack and 2 hurries. He has made 69 solo tackles (nice), 16 assisted tackles and missed 10 more attempts (10.5% miss rate), making 19 run stops and forcing two fumbles (both in 2023). That missed tackle rate might be worse than it appears, as his miss rates season-by-season from 2021 to 2024 are 0% (14 snaps played), 4.8%, 15.4%, 15.4%.

Last week, Amon-Ra split his time equally between the slot and out wide (31:31), with one snap in the backfield. However, McCloud will likely be the corner on him in 11 personnel as Johnson and Stevenson will be needed on the outside to cover Jamo and TeSlaa (let's hope Jamo doesn't reignite his rivalry with Stevenson like Branch did with Tucker Kraft singles last week... 😬). Last week, St. Brown caught 80% of his targets for 11.3 yards a reception, 1.07 yards per route run, and a typical 0% drop rate (his career drop rate is 2.7%). All four of his catches went for first downs as well. All in all, so long as the Bears don't try and copy the Packers' defensive game plan from last week, I expect Amon-Ra to bounce back from what was a mediocre game by his high standards. That should open up things for the other skill players, as he is the proverbial straw that stirs the drink for our offence.

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Back on the Wright Track: I think we can all admit that Week 1 was not exactly great for Hutch. Double teams, missed holds on him, a bogus penalty called against him, and being slammed to the ground... not the resurgent DPOY-level performance we were all hoping for. He played 46 snaps last week (23 in run defence, 21 in pass rush, and 2 infamous snaps in coverage). He recorded two pressures, a QB hit and a hurry, and made an assisted tackle. I will grant the caveat that, for more than half of his snaps (52%), Hutch was facing Zach Tom, who is an excellent tackle. However, on 46% of his snaps, he was facing Rasheed Walker, who is not as talented. He also took a snap in the B-gap facing Aaron Banks.

As I've pointed out time and time again on the podcast, Hutch usually lines up over the right tackle. This means he will be facing Darnell Wright for most of the game on Sunday. Wright had a pretty good game on Monday Night Football, according to PFF, with them charting him with a 77.9 grade, comprised of an 86.0 pass-blocking grade and a 76.5 run-blocking grade. This high grade mostly comes from him not giving up a pressure on his 46 pass-blocking snaps, which is pretty damn good. Last season, admittedly not facing Hutch as he was out by the time we played Chicago, Wright only gave up a single hurry over both his games against Detroit last year. The season prior, when he did face Hutch, he gave up five pressures (1 sack, a QB hit and 3 hurries). Therefore, while that was Wright's rookie year, we know that Hutch is able to play against Wright to a high level. Furthermore, Wright was called for a false start and a holding penalty last week, something that could get worse in a hostile environment like an amped-up Ford Field.

Therefore, while Hutch's impact will be lessened until another defensive lineman is able to beat their one-on-one, I fully expect him to have a better game against a lesser tackle with a crowd at his back, forcing his opponent to make bad plays.

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Kmet to Stopping Loveland: The Bears played 12 personnel on 39.4% of their offensive snaps last week, which was the 5th most of any team across the league. This is also a departure from their usage last year, as they only ran 12 on 19% of their snaps last season. This is not only an effect of their hiring of Benedict Johnson, but is also emblematic of a league-wide trend towards this personnel as a way to exploit the nickel-heavy defences most teams run. However, due largely to the versatility of Branch, the Lions are a team ahead of this trend as we run a base defence at a league-high rate. Last week, we ran base on 57.4% of our defensive snaps, which was the second-highest rate in the league behind the Vikings (58.7%). We can do this as we can have Branch cover one tight end and a linebacker covering the other, with Kerby operating as a single-high limiting explosive plays.

Last week, Loveland and Kmet combined for 3 catches on 6 targets for 43 yards. Despite only bringing in one of his four targets for a catch, Kmet was the better receiver according to PFF with a 72.1 receiving grade, while Loveland's 100% catch rate for 12 yards earned him a 51.1 receiving grade. As blockers, both tight ends were poor blockers, with Kmet scoring especially badly in this area according to PFF. They both allowed a single hurry against the Vikings in pass-blocking, with Loveland logging 2 pass-blocking snaps and Kmet 9. Kmet was used as a blocker on 48.3% of his overall snaps (29/60), while Loveland's blocking usage was on 39.5% of his snaps (15/38). Durham Smythe was used as a blocker on 6 of his 7 snaps, meaning this is a slight tell for the defence to key off.

On the converse, Branch was elite in coverage according to PFF, earning a 91.3 coverage grade, allowing only 6 yards on the two throws his way. Anzalone lived up to his reputation as our best coverage backer with a 68.6 grade, allowing one catch for 4 yards on his two targets. In third for the Lions was Derrick Barnes, allowing one catch for 1 yard on his two targets, earning himself a 62.8 coverage grade. Branch was weaker in run defence, logging the worst run defence grade of this group with a 59.5 from PFF. He made 4 tackles and 3 run stops, with an average tackle depth of 4.8 yards. Anzalone scored the highest with a 70.0 run defence grade, logging 2 solo tackles, 3 assisted tackles and 2 run stops. His tackles were made 1.5 yards downfield on average. Barnes made 4 solo tackles, 1 assisted tackle and 2 run stops, with his tackles coming 3.5 yards downfield on average, earning a 64.9 grade.

Therefore, given how our defence works, we do stand a good chance of limiting the effectiveness of the Bears' usage of 12 personnel, with Branch covering Loveland and either Anzalone or Barnes covering Kmet when the Bears trot out those looks. This could force the Bears to adjust to using more 11 personnel, in which case the linebackers can cover the tight end, and Branch can cover the slot receiver. Either way, the heavy usage of base formations is here to stay for our defence.

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Hot Take: The offence bounces back in a big way, getting over 400 yards and scoring three touchdowns.

Score Prediction: As the coaches have said time and time again in their press conferences this week, the mistakes against Green Bay were correctable. We had good drives on both sides of the ball, and I trust this coaching staff to fix the errors, and will continue to do so until they show me I shouldn't. The team can use this week almost as a reset. Given the many, many connections between both staffs, we will be facing offensive and defensive schemes that the players should know pretty well, as they are closely mirrored in the ones they face in practice every week. I wish I could predict a blowout win. I'd love it if we got one. But I have tried to be conservative as I could with my prediction, while still acknowledging the gulf in talent between the two teams. We should not be stalling in the red zone like we did last week. We should not be limited to dinking-and-dunking against a deep shell defence. The running game should get back to being what we expected it to be. The defence should be better equipped to convert third downs into turnovers. It's a lot of shoulds, but I trust the Lions to turn those shoulds into wills a lot more than I trust the Bears to turn them into won'ts.

Chicago Bears 17, Detroit Lions 27

How do you think the game will go? Will Detroit bounce back when in familiar territory, or will Ben come back to hurt his old friends?

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