Lions @ Commanders Game Preview
- Ash Soden
- Nov 8
- 6 min read
Well, I'm sorry last week was so bad. Was it a bye week hangover? Did Graham do a massive fart in the locker room and annoy Tate and Christian so much that they refused to talk to him? After all, he is known for having a bit of a swamp ass. Did Frank forget to send the offensive line their weekly milk delivery, so their bones were extra brittle? Whatever it was, we gotta put it behind us, as revenge is on the cards, as we visit Maryland for the second time this season.
This time, it's Hail to the Chief as we play the Commies in front of the President himself. They might be beaten up, but so were we when we faced them in the Divisional Round last season, so we should follow a Cobra Kai philosophy and show no mercy. But what do the stats suggest we should do to gain our revenge? Let's take a look at our Lions at Commanders game preview to answer that.
Do the Wright Thing:
I know Wright has been a controversial player of late, with his PFF grade ranking 101st of 129 tight ends to have taken a snap on offence so far this season (53.0). However, if you can believe it, this grade is currently a high for the last three years, with him earning 52.1 and 48.6 grades over the previous two seasons, respectively. He also sports presently a career-high receiving grade (65.4), and his pass- and run blocking grades are near career highs (his 61.3 pass-blocking grade was only bettered in 2023, and his 49.9 run-blocking grade is only bettered by his 52.0 mark last season).
Furthermore, the Lions currently rank 5th in the league at EPA per play created out of 12 personnel (+0.42), on a 4th-ranking usage rate (36.2%). Conversely, the Commanders rank 9th among 12 personnel faced (25.8%), but 24th in EPA per play conceded (+0.13). Therefore, one should hope we lean into this to exploit the Commanders' weakness. Likewise, we should lean into play action, as we use it at a rate around league average (23.2%, 15th-highest in the league) but create an elite EPA on these plays (+0.42, 3rd). The Commanders' defence has faced play action on 27.2% of their plays, and has given up +0.23 EPA per play, which is 23rd in the league.
The Commanders' weakness against 12 personnel and against play action probably comes down to the drop-off in linebacker play for their defence. While Wagner has graded above average (76.9), this is a drop of nearly 12 grade points compared to last season, and his lowest season grade since his last year in Seattle in 2021. In particular, his coverage ability has decreased, as his 53.6 grade in this area is a career low. The same is true for my least favourite player in the league. Luvu's grade has dropped by nearly 5.5 points to a 58.8, with his coverage dropping by 9 points to a 49.6.
Therefore, while Wright is a figure of disconcernation right now in the fanbase, we should lean into our 12 personnel usage to exploit the Commanders' linebackers, particularly against play action.
Short and Sweet:
We all know our scheme is mostly predicated on short and intermediate throws, especially this season, where we're using more screens than a Buffalo Wild Wings on Super Bowl night. This bears out in the stats, as Goff's throws have gone deep at a league-bottom 7.1% rate. However, on the aforementioned shorter throws, we have been highly effective. Our +0.28 EPA per play on short throws leads the league, and our +0.72 EPA on intermediate throws ranks 4th. Conversely, the Commanders' defence ranks 27th against short passes (+0.14 EPA per play conceded) and 20th against intermediate throws (+0.45).
This weakness against shorter passes perhaps comes down to the fact that Washington's cornerback room has been highly subpar this season. Their best corner, Antonio Hamilton Sr., according to PFF, has only played 5 defensive snaps (3 of which were in coverage) and has only earned a 63.2 coverage grade from PFF. Their best starter is rookie Trey Amos, who has earned a 62.3 coverage grade on 292 coverage snaps, allowing a 64.5% completion rate for 14.4 yards a catch. Their other outside starter now is Mike Sainristil with a 49.5 coverage grade, allowing a 73.5% completion rate for 11.5 yards a catch. Noah Igbinoghene will likely step in as the slot corner, but his coverage grade is 44.8, allowing a 57.1% completion rate for 16.3 yards a catch.
Therefore, while we should hope for more variation in how we attack the short and intermediate areas of the field compared to the predictability of the past few weeks, we should still press the issue in these areas and hit Washington where they're weakest.
What's 9 Plus 10?:
While the Commanders' offence has been a weakness, especially without Daniels under centre, they still have areas of strength. One such area is their usage of 21 personnel. While they utilise such packages on 2.2% of their offensive plays, which is below league-average at 19th, they rank 5th in EPA per play created on those plays (+0.24). The Lions' defence struggles against 21 personnel. They have faced it at a near league-low (2.3% of defensive plays, 31st in the league). However, the +0.52 EPA per play we've conceded on those plays is bottom of the league. This is confusing, as given our propensity for using base defensive formations (50.9% of defensive plays, 2nd in the league), our linebackers should be able to pick up the running backs easily. However, the stats don't lie, so this is something for the Commanders to key in on.
We could, of course, force the issue by taking the lead and staying in it, forcing them into obvious passing situations where 21 personnel would not be conducive to them. This would swing the balance of power in the Lions' favour, as the Commanders do not rank so highly in their usage of 11 and 12 personnel. They rank 19th in usage for both personnel sets (60.1% 11, 21.8% 12), but rank 17th in EPA in 11 (+0.04) and 25th in 12 (-0.09). Conversely, the Lions' defence ranks 7th against 11 personnel (-0.04) and 8th against 12 (-0.11). Therefore, forcing them into situations where they have to use more obvious passing formations will allow our defence to tee off and attack the Commanders to shut down their offence.
(Cover) One Love:
Even with my beloved single high safety, our reigning interception leader, Kerby Joseph, out for today's game, we should still look to deploy single high looks as often as we can, because we excel at them, and the Commanders suck against them. The Lions' defence uses said looks on 62.5% of their plays, which ranks the 4th-most in the league. On those plays, we concede -0.09 EPA per play, which also ranks 4th in the league. Conversely, Washington faces single high looks the most in the league, seeing it on 66.5% of their offensive plays. On said plays, they create -0.09 EPA per play, which ranks 25th in the league.
The reason for our strength in playing single-high looks lies in the ability it allows us to load the box and still be able to cover to a reasonable level. Branch's versatility allows him to either play a robber role under Kerby, taking intermediate crossing routes, or as a slot corner covering slot receivers or tight ends. In our base looks, this means we can have eight men in the box to defend the run, while also being able to cover a variety of personnel looks. Leaning into this, especially against a quarterback like Mariota, who doesn't pose a great threat downfield (30% completion rate past 20 yards, 7.7% turnover-worthy play rate), should hopefully result in turnovers or other negative plays for the Commanders.
Starters:
Purple: top 10% of players in their position according to PFF grade
Green: top 25%
Yellow: top 50%
Orange: top 75%
Red: bottom 25%
Hot Take: The Lions' defence continues their good play against a rushing quarterback, holding Mariota to less than 50 rushing yards.
Score Prediction: Last week was a disappointment, and despite the seemingly inconsistent communication about what needed to be fixed on the offence, we can hope that the issues have been fixed. A matchup against a beaten-up and broken Commanders defence should be a good tonic for said issues, and a depleted offence without their star receiver and quarterback could be a nice matchup for the defence to get any last traces of the big play issues against the Vikings out of their system. I would love a marmalisation on the level of Paddington's sandwiches, but even I must be slightly cautious. Even then, I predict a two-score victory, letting our Lions once again cover the spread (unlike PoD's Madden sim...).
Detroit Lions 30, Washington Commanders 17
How do you think the game will go? Will we get back on track against the Commanders, or will history repeat itself?
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Nice preview Ant! Basically a must win