Lions @ Chiefs Game Preview
- Ash Soden
- Oct 10
- 10 min read
Our Lions have the best offence in football by points scored (34.8 PPG), the second-best point differential (+62), third-best turnover differential (+6), third-best success rate (49.4%), and fifth-best offence by EPA per play (0.153). Who would have thought that would happen after Week 1, huh? This week is perhaps the first real test for the team in a couple of weeks, having faced weak offences in Cleveland and Cincinnati, and the best defence in points per game the offence has faced since Week 1 (Chiefs rank 14th [21.4 PPG], Green Bay 12th [21.0], Cleveland 21st [24.6], Chicago 28th [29.3], Cincinnati 30th [31.2], and Baltimore 32nd [35.4]). It comes at the worst possible time, with both our outside corners unavailable for the game due to injury, and our left tackle is a big doubt with his lingering shoulder injury.
Can our Lions pull out the win against Kansas City, and what matchups will prove key to such a victory? Have a look at our Lions v Chiefs game preview to see...
A Box of (Tyquan) Thornton(s):
It might be fair to say that our cornerback room is the weakest part of our team right now. What once appeared to be a strength in the off-season has become a weakness, as three of our top four guys have ended up injured. By all accounts, our starting three corners will be Amik and Rock Ya Sin on the outside, with Avonte Maddox in the slot. We already ran a lot of base personnel, and we can definitely lean into that while Arnold and Reed are out to cover some of our weaknesses in personnel. Luckily for us, entering this week, the Chiefs have run 11 personnel on 54.9% of their offensive plays, which is the 22nd-highest rate in the league, though they did have the best EPA per play in this personnel set (0.28). They run 12 on 31.8% of their plays, which is the 8th-highest rate, gaining the 25th-most EPA per play in this set (-0.12), and 21 on 4.3% of their plays (10th) for -0.19 EPA/play (22nd). This leans into our tendency to run base personnel (49.3%, 2nd-most in the league), as this allows us to match up well against their packages (we have faced 12 on 40.3% of our defensive plays [2nd-most] for -0.24 EPA per play [3rd-best]).
Looking at our outside corners, Amik has taken the most coverage snaps, having been the one starting corner left standing. He has played 136 coverage snaps for a 63.2 PFF coverage grade. He has been thrown at 22 times, allowing catches on 68.2% of his targets (15) for 15.1 yards per catch, though that average is highly influenced by the 64-yard touchdown he gave up to Chase last week. Seventeen of his targets and 10 of his catches allowed have occurred over the last two weeks, as his snap count has been increased due to coaching decisions and the aforementioned injuries. These targets come at 9.1 yards downfield on average. He has forced one incompletion, recorded one PBU, one interception, dropped another, and is credited by PFF for giving up 2 touchdowns, for a 113.1 passer rating when targeted. Rock has only taken 34 snaps in coverage, but he has done pretty well on those snaps, earning a 63.9 grade in coverage. He allowed 4 catches on 7 targets (57.1%) for 9.8 yards a reception, on a 9.8-yard ADOT. He has 2 forced incompletions, both PBUs, and one allowed touchdown for a 112.5 passer rating in coverage. In the slot, Maddox has been marginally above average, according to the 60.2 coverage grade PFF has assigned him. He has allowed catches on both of his targets for 14.0 yards per catch, on a 12.0-yard ADOT, for a 118.8 passer rating.
The Chiefs don't have an elite game-changer at receiver, instead opting for an offence much like the one we operated ten years ago post-Megatron. Instead of force-feeding one elite target, they now spread the ball around to multiple good, productive targets, making their offence harder to predict and thus harder to defend. This could, of course, change when Rashee Rice returns to the field after his suspension, but that isn't until after this game. The Chiefs have no recognised slot receiver, as all four of their main receivers have spent between 37 and 43% of their snaps in the slot, allowing them to better exploit matchups, meaning we might need to have our corners travel to try and negate this.
According to PFF, their best receiver is Taylor Swift's second-favourite Chief, Xavier Worthy, with a 74.7 offence grade. In his three games so far, he has been targeted 18 times, catching 61.1% of these (11) for 11.4 yards a reception, and 1.33 first downs per game. He has a 2.81% CROE and has accrued +0.56 EPA per target, which is the best on the team. He averages 1.84 yards per route run on a 14.4-yard ADOT, logging a 55.6% success rate, 0% drop rate and a 33.3% contested catch success rate (1/3). He has forced one missed tackle and has an 81.9 passer rating when targeted. The most targeted Chiefs receiver is Marquise Brown, who has been thrown at 38 times. He has caught 26 of these (68.4%) for 9.9 yards a catch, 1 touchdown, 1 missed tackle forced per game, and 2.6 first downs per game. He has earned a 68.9 PFF grade, +0.22 EPA/target, on a -0.08% CROE and a 52.5% success rate. He averages 1.62 yards per route run, on a 9.5-yard ADOT, with a 3.7% drop rate (1), a 33.3% contested catch rate (2/6), and a 96.1 passer rating when targeted.
Tyquan Thornton has been targeted 24 times for 13 catches (54.2%, +5.76% CROE), 20.9 yards per catch, a 25-yard ADOT, a 0% drop rate, 66.7% contested catch success rate (4/6), 2 first downs per game, 3 touchdowns, and a 134.0 passer rating when targeted. He also earns +0.47 EPA per target, has a 48.0% receiving success rate, and gets 1.94 yards per route run. PFF have credited him with a 70.4 offence grade. The Chiefs' worst receiver, according to PFF, is JuJu Smith-Schuster with a 57.0 offence grade. He has been targeted 20 times for 16 catches (80%, +7.94% CROE), 10.5 yards per reception, a 0% drop rate, a 50% contested catch rate (1/2), 1.6 first downs per game, 1.2 forced missed tackles per game, 1 interception and 1 touchdown when targeted. He averages 1.05 yards per route run, a 4.9-yard ADOT, a 66.7% success rate, a 97.5 passer rating when thrown at, and +0.51 EPA/target.
The Chiefs' passing game will be hard to defend from a coverage point of view. However, if we can get pressure on Mahomes and force him to operate out of structure, even on a percentage of plays, this could handicap their passing attack and give us some opportunities to get some stops. The Chiefs have invested in their offensive line, so we cannot suppose an outcome like the 2021 or more recent Super Bowls is likely, but even a performance that pressures Mahomes on more dropbacks than his average of 31.2% could create some bad plays for us to exploit.
How to Tackle the Issue:
Speaking of getting pressure on Mahomes, the Chiefs are starting a rookie left tackle this season. With the 32nd pick of this past draft (would have been 31st but they traded with the Eagles so they could get Jihaad Campbell), the Chiefs selected Josh Simmons, formerly of Ohio State and San Diego State. He has played 314 snaps so far this season: 224 pass blocking and 90 run blocking. He has graded out at 64.6 overall according to PFF, with a 55.0 run blocking grade and a 72.3 pass-blocking grade. So far this season, he has allowed 12 pressures for a 96.9% pass-blocking efficiency. Of those pressures, 10 were hurries, and the others were a sack and a QB hit, respectively. He has also conceded three penalties, though these came in Weeks 1 and 3. On the other side of the line, we once again face our old false-starting foe, Jawaan Taylor. So far this season, he has played 323 blocking snaps (226 pass-blocking, 97 run-blocking). He has a 50.2 offence PFF grade, made up of 45.1 run-blocking and 62.0 pass-blocking grades. So far this season, he has allowed 7 pressures (3 QB hits and 4 hurries) for a 98.4% pass-blocking efficiency. He has also conceded 8 penalties, including one holding penalty that was offset. Therefore, as you can see, both tackles are there for the taking if we so choose, but especially Taylor at right tackle.
This is especially true as we have two edge rushers currently in the top 10 in the league for defence PFF grade, facing tackles who are 31st and 57th in the league for their grades. The alpha is, of course, Aidan Hutchinson. He has earned a 93.0 grade so far this season, composed of a 78.7 run defence, 30.8 tackling grade (40% miss rate), 92.9 pass-rush grade and a 61.9 coverage grade (earned on pesky 4 coverage snaps from Weeks 1 and 3). He has played 277 snaps so far this season (91.7% of all defensive snaps); 94 in run defence and 179 in pass rush. He has a league-leading 31 pressures (6 sacks, 7 hits and 18 hurries) according to PFF, along with 3 solo tackles, 3 assisted tackles and 8 run stops. His counterpart in this year's breakout candidate, Al-Quadin Muhammad, has an 88.2 defence grade from PFF. He has been scored at 67.4 in run defence (not a surprise given his lighter frame), 59.1 in tackling (16.7% miss rate), 86.2 in pass rush and 54.8 in coverage. PFF has credited him with 17 pressures (4 sacks, 4 hits and 9 hurries), 4 solo tackles, 1 assisted tackle and 6 run stops. He has also been targeted once for a 15-yard catch.
The key will be stopping the run on early downs, getting Mahomes into third-and-long situations where Hutch and AQM can pin their ears back and make Patty's life hell. Of course, this also relies on the DTs keeping their gap integrity to not allow rush lanes for Mahomes to escape through, and for the team to not get penalties to bail out the Chiefs on these key downs. Easy enough, right?
Stand by Your Man(u): Of course, the opposite is true. With it looking reasonably doubtful that stalwart tackle Taylor Decker will be suiting up on Sunday night, despite his questionable designation, we will again be starting a backup at left tackle. With Skipper being signed from the practice squad on Wednesday (something that seemed a possibility since Dan mentioned him in an answer about Decker in his Monday presser), it comes down to him or Manu on Sunday, if Manu is able to overcome the knee injury that popped up on Thursday's injury report and has earned him a questionable designation on the injury report.
Looking at the "incumbent" Manu, on his first career start, he earned a 42.2 blocking grade (54th out of 55 tackles who took more than 43 snaps), including a 17.5 pass-blocking grade (55th). This is because he was credited with two sacks, including the strip sack on Goff by Hendrickson. His run-blocking grade was 55.3 (41st), which isn't too bad for a first career start. Notable tackles who scored worse than Manu in run blocking last week include Fashanu, Banks Jr., Fuaga, Bolles, and Ersery. In comparison, the tallest player to ever catch an NFL pass scored a 58.4 blocking grade in his last career start (Wk14 last year against the Packers). He was graded worse in run blocking than Manu, with a 45.2 grade. However, he posted a 74.2 pass blocking grade, having only allowed a hit and a hurry in that game.
The Chiefs currently aren't a team that flips their edges much to exploit matchups. Charles Omenihu is their primary right defensive end in terms of snaps, having played 60.8% of his 181 snaps against the left tackle (110:21:50 RE/LE/DT split). So far this season, he hasn't played well overall. PFF credits him with a 49.0 grade, which is 99th out of 119 qualifying edges. He has a 54.4 run defence grade, a 76.5 tackling grade (not missed a tackle so far this season), 57.4 pass rushing grade and a 60.2 coverage grade (1 snap in coverage so far this season). He has 9 pressures on the season (1 sack, 2 hits and 6 hurries), 10 solo tackles, 2 assisted tackles and 7 run stops. However, his play has picked up over the past two weeks, with 7 of his pressures, including his solitary sack, coming over that span, and his grades have picked up from subpar (all below 57.5) to above average 60.1 and 75.9 game grades. While he is not on the level of a Trey Hendrickson, he could pose some issues for tackles with his power. Luckily, both possible options to replace Decker are big dudes who handle power better than finesse.
Given where we are and the matchup at hand, I would surprisingly stick with Manu at left tackle if his knee is okay, and if Decker is unable to play on Sunday. The game plan will likely be to run the ball on their defence, not only to limit the amount of possessions Mahomes gets, but also because of how poor their run defence is. They rank around league average in rushing attempts faced per game (16th, 25.8), but 21st for rushing yards allowed per game (123.4), tied for 23rd in first downs per rushing allowed per game (7.8) and tied for 24th in rushing TDs allowed per game (1.2), 26th in running success rate allowed (44.0%) and yards per attempt allowed (4.8), and 29th in run EPA per play with +0.024. I fully expect a similar offensive plan to what we saw against the Ravens, and with such a plan and against a weaker edge rusher than Hendrickson, this could be an opportunity to see if Manu is able to improve week on week and develop into a viable lineman.
Opposing Starters:
Purple- star player (i.e. top 10 in PFF grade, or equivalent for ST)
Green- starting level player (i.e. top 32 in PFF grade, or equivalent for ST)
Yellow- below average player (i.e. top 48 in PFF grade, or equivalent for ST)
Orange- replacement level player (i.e. below 48th in PFF grade, or equivalent for ST)
Red- weakness when on the field (i.e. bottom 10 in PFF grade, or equivalent for ST)
Hot Take: (Obvious if you know me) Kerby adds Patrick Mahomes to his list of QBs he's picked
Score Prediction: This game is a hard one to predict. On one hand, you have the Chiefs' reputation and the fact that they have one of the best quarterbacks of all time under center, going up against a depleted cornerback room. On the other hand, you have their play so far this year, which has not lived up to the aforementioned reputation, and the fact that our Lions are one of the best teams in the league (if not the best). I try to be as impartial as possible. I have to go with the form team; the one to knock the Cleveland Browns from their spot as the best defence in the league by putting 34 points on them, the one who began the downfall of the Ravens, the one with the best scoring offence in the league entering this week. And that's our Lions. It might be close, it might be a case of who has the ball last wins, but our Lions can and will pull out the win.
Kansas City Chiefs 24, Detroit Lions 31
How do you think the game will go? Will Goff continue his unbeaten streak against the GOAT-in-waiting, or will the Chiefs go on to rule the game?
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look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts