Pepsi Bottle, Coca-Kolar Glass
- Ash Soden
- Sep 21
- 8 min read
Come on, you know I gotta force a meme into these previews every once in a while. I saw a chance, I took it; can you blame me?
Of course, this week our Lions travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens in their "Darkness There and Nothing More" game. This does mean our opponents will be wearing their special all-black uniforms, which sucks because I really like those uniforms. The last time we faced a team wearing a special alternate, it was a rough day for us as it was the 5-interception game against the Texans in their "Battle Red" uniforms. Let's hope this week can be a bit cleaner turnover-wise.
With it being a Monday Night Football game, this does mean this preview goes from an aperitif during your college football viewing (go Noles) to a halftime snack between the afternoon and evening slates. I'll try and keep it as appetising as I can, as we look at the three matchups I'll be keeping an eye on, before I make my usual wildly inaccurate predictions of how the game is going to go.
For My Peebles: We all know how much I liked Aeneas Peebles in this year's draft cycle. The undersized defensive tackle out of Virginia Tech ticked a lot of the boxes I like in a pass-rushing 3T. It seems I have a type for that position because I also loved Calijah Kancey when he was in the draft. Why am I talking about a sixth-round pick? It's because Peebles is set to be a starter for the first time in his pro career, as Baltimore's star defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike has been ruled out with a neck injury. This is an issue for the Ravens, as Madubuike has 2 of their 3 sacks on the year (Kyle Van Noy, who has also been ruled out for the game, has the other).
So far, Peebles has played 34 defensive snaps (12 in Week 1, 22 last week), with more of these coming in pass-rush situations (23 pass-rush snaps, 11 in run defence). He has two pressures on the season, both hurries created in Week 1. He also batted a pass in that game. In Week 2, he made a tackle and a run stop, showing some impact against the run. Overall, PFF has him graded as their 27th IDL on the season (minimum 30 snaps, 123 such players qualify) with a 69.9 grade, with his 61.6 run defence grade ranking 47th, his 69.2 pass rush grade ranking 26th and his 67.3 tackling grade ranking tied-70th. Peebles usually lines up on the right-hand side of their line, meaning he will likely be facing off against Christian Mahogany.
Mahogany has had a rough start to his second year in the league according to PFF, though this is perhaps weighed down because of how poor the whole offensive line was against Green Bay. This has to be taken in context for the rest of the league, as he is currently PFF's 30th ranked guard of those who have played at least 110 snaps on the season (51 such guards) with a 57.6 grade. His 58.6 pass-blocking grade also ranks 30th, and his 55.7 run-blocking grade ranks 28th. His 4 pressures allowed on the season ranks tied-23rd of these guards, but his 95.8% pass-blocking efficiency ranked tied-44th as this stat is weighted towards sacks and Mahogany has given up 2 which is the most of this group (13 have given up 1, and the other 27 are currently sackless).
Overall, this might be a bit of a ding-dong battle. I see Mahogany getting the better of Peebles in the run game, but when it comes to passing situations, I could see Peebles giving the Dirtbag some troubles, especially with the stunts and blitz Orr likes to bring. Hopefully, communication will be better along the line and Glasgow is able to provide some help when needed, or we can keep a back into block-and-release to also provide a buffer for Goff to buy him an extra half second to get the throw off.
Muller Cornered: In the offseason, the Check the MIc podcast ranked the Ravens secondary as the best position group in the league. Not just secondary, position group as a whole. It's not hard to see why, they arguably have the best safety in the league in Kyle Hamilton (see my first ever article for the podcast for my feelings about him), a rookie safety who a lot of people really liked (Malaki Starks), and then a corner group of Nate Wiggins (who, despite my loving of trolling Ravens fans about him on Twitter, is good), Marlon Humphrey (who has been a really good corner in his career, but is on the downward track in his career), Chidobe Awuzie (who is a great signing for how much the Ravens are paying him [$1.255m]) and Jaire Alexander (perennially injured, but again someone who has put good tape out there when healthy). However, it is not unassailable. While they are 9th in the league in EPA/pass allowed, they are 31st in passing yards allowed per game, 28th in red zone efficiency, 22nd in EPA/pass in the intermediate passing area, 19th in 3rd down efficiency, and 16th in success rate allowed. They can be attacked, and the Lions have the weapons to do so.
According to PFF, their best cover corner is FA addition Awuzie, who has a 72.2 coverage grade so far this season. He has played 90 of his 93 wide corner snaps on the right-hand side of their defence, but as we like to move our receivers around, it is hard to distinguish a particular matchup that he will face. So far, he has allowed catches on two-thirds of his targets for 8.1 yards a reception, no touchdowns, no interceptions or PBUs, one forced incompletion and a passer rating of 80.2 in coverage. On the other side, Wiggins has a 68.4 coverage grade, allowing catches on 62.5% of his targets for 9.3 yards a catch, one interception, no touchdowns and a 52.3 passer rating. In the slot, Humphrey has a 55.7 coverage grade. He has also allowed catches on two thirds of his targets, but for 16.0 yards a reception, one touchdown, one dropped interception and a 139.1 passer rating in coverage.
If I were the Ravens, I would hope Waymo stays mostly in his "traditional" right hand alignment as this matches his speed up with Wiggins, who is also pretty fast. If this happens, it means Awuzie will face the Sun God in 12 personnel, then either TeSlaa or Raymond in 11; not exactly a great matchup for Baltimore. In 11, the Sun God will face Humphrey, which based on what PFF says is a really bad matchup for the Ravens. Given that they are in nickel packages for 68% of their defensive plays, we can also exploit this by playing a lot of 12 and 21 personnel, getting Humphrey into even more bad matchups against Gibbs and LaPorta. Therefore, there are ways we can take advantage of the Ravens secondary; by using motion like we did for Waymo's post touchdown against the Bears, and/or by moving our skill players around the formation to get a size advantage against Wiggins or by using Jamo's speed against their other corners, for example.
Give Him His Flowers: As with the first section of this preview, I will speak about an undersized ACC product that I really liked in the draft process and now plays for the Ravens. Zay Flowers is a damn good receiver, and he will get his on Monday night. However, much like the game against Chicago last week, and for a large stretch of our 2023 season, we can find a way for our defence to survive by letting him do what he's gonna, and clamp down on the other receivers to force the Ravens' passing game to become fairly one-dimensional. Flowers usually lines up in the slot, or on the right of their formation. This means he will likely face either Branch or Amik when he's in the slot (Branch in our 4-3 base look, Amik when we're in nickel), then Arnold if he's lined up out wide (most of Arnold's snaps have been as our left corner).
However, as I mentioned above, I can see us clamping down on the other receivers, especially as (so far) they haven't been as influential as Zay. Flowers has a 42.2% target share currently, having been targeted on 19 of Lamar's 45 pass attempts according to PFF. The next highest is Rashod Bateman, who has brought in 4 of his 7 targets for 6.3 yards a catch, one first down, and no touchdowns. Third-down back Justice Hill is their third-most targeted receiver, hauling in 4 of his 5 targets for 5.3 yards a catch, a first down and no touchdowns. Starting tight end Mark Andrews and rotational outside receiver DeAndre Hopkins both have four targets on the season, to diverging effects. Nuk has caught all four for 24.8 yards a catch, one first down and two touchdowns. Andrews, on the other hand, has only caught two for 3.5 yards a catch, no first downs and no touchdowns (which my fantasy team totalllyyyyy thanks him for). Tylan Wallace and Tez Walker both have two targets and two catches on the season, with the former taking his for 12.5 yards a catch, one first down and one touchdown, and the latter taking his for 13.0 yards a reception and two touchdowns. Zaire Mitchell-Paden, who is the Ravens' TE 4 and sits on their practise squad did not catch his only target on the season, and King Henry caught his solo target so far this season for 13 yards. TE 3 Charlie Kolar has not been targeted thus far this season.
Flowers is definitely their WR1, and deservedly so. As last week showed, our defence is able to survive one receiver going off (in that case, it was Rome Odunze). The key is to not let another receiver impact the game. While rotational players like Hopkins, Wallace and Walker have had impacts in previous games, they are rotational and so with proper communication, we can limit their impact and so force Lamar to hyperfixate on Flowers, allowing our safeties to key in on this and make plays on the ball. Lamar doesn't usually turn the ball over, but if he is almost forced into a one-read QB, it can happen. If he doesn't turn the ball over, he will at least hold onto the ball a tick longer, giving the pass rush a chance to get home and sack him. It is possible.
Hot Take: Tyleik Williams gets the first sack of his professional career.
Score Prediction: Does a reverse jinx work if one acknowledges said reverse jinx? The Ravens will be without their best pass-rushers in Van Noy and Madubuike, their secondary isn't as impenetrable as you would have thought in the off-season, and the Browns showed that it is possible to slow their run game. However, the issues with communication in the secondary, some growing pains with us playing more zone coverage than we're used to, and the acclimatisation period for the interior offensive line does still give me a little pause. Adding in the fact that it's in Baltimore, for a special uniform night so their crowd will be especially rowdy, I can see their home field advantage giving them the edge to win the game. I hate it, but I gotta be realistic.
Detroit Lions 27, Baltimore Ravens 34
How do you think the game will go? Will Detroit force the Ravens into the darkness and nothing more, or will Baltimore darken our week by handing us another loss.
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look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts