No Beating About the (Devin) Bush

Well, no one expected that on Monday Night Football, did they? (Okay, okay, you and Nick Shook both had us beating the Ravens in your official predictions, Ant, you are right...)

This week, our 2-1 Lions come home to defend the den as an old foe makes the short trip to try their darndest to put us back to .500. Once again, the Great Lakes Classic is upon us, as the 1-2 Cleveland Browns come to town. The Lions lead the regular season and postseason series 19-6-0, but the Browns led the preseason series, which was once contested annually for "the Barge" (formally known as the Great Lakes Freighter Trophy) between 2002 and 2014, 6-5 (the Lions won the last game 13-12, though).

As per usual, I will try my best to talk you through some of the matchups that'll be keeping my eye on when I watch the game on Sunday. (For our UK readers, do not fret, I will not be appearing on Channel 5 at this moment in time. Maybe next time they show a Lions game.) I will leave the matchup of their defensive line versus our offensive line well enough alone, as you have probably heard that from every Lions outlet you know. Instead, I'll try to look at some things, using all the tools at my disposal.

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Committed to the Denzel Ward: As we have heard time and time again, this Browns defensive line is pretty good. Their secondary, on the other hand, not so much.

Despite having the 4th best defense in terms of passing yards given up (147.0 per game), the Browns have the 17th defence in EPA/dropback (+0.105), 18th in dropback success rate (46.0%), 17th in interceptions (0.33 per game), 28th in passing touchdowns (2) 26th in 3rd down efficiency (44 attempts, 45.5%), 27th in 4th down efficiency (1 attempt, 100%) and 25th in redzone efficiency (9 attempts, 66.7%).

According to PFF, this is due to their corners. Of their starters in the back seven, the top four grades belong to their linebackers (Bush with an 85.4, and Schwesinger with a 72.0) and their safeties (Hickman Jr. with a 71.7, and Delpit with a 71.3). Their best corner is Greg Newsome II, who sports a 67.4 coverage grade. He has allowed a 75% catch rate on his 12 targets for 12 yards a reception, 2 forced incompletions, including a PBU, and a 102.1 passer rating in coverage. His partner in grime, Denzel Ward, has a 62.7 coverage grade so far this season. He has allowed a 60% completion rate on his 10 targets for 9.3 yards a catch, 2 PBUs and a 74.2 passer rating. However, their worst corner is their nickelback, Myles Harden. He has allowed a 75% completion rate on 12 targets, for 12.3 yards a reception, a PBU, and a touchdown; earning him a 130.9 passer rating in coverage, and a 47.2 coverage grade.

It goes without saying that this is good news for any and all St. Brown fantasy owners, and those who like our WR1 getting the yards. While I am at the forefront of the campaign to rid our Sun God of the slot receiver moniker that harms him in wide receiver discussions, since he does play that role when we are in 11 personnel, Harden will likely be one of his primary matchups on Sunday. This is something we can exploit, allowing Amon-Ra to continue his "safety blanket" role on critical downs, while also being a primary passing option in more neutral situations. As Ward usually plays the left-hand side, this means he will likely see Jamo for most of the game. This is almost a net neutral matchup, as while Ward has the speed to keep up with him, Jamo is 2 inches taller and has the route-running nous to get himself open. This means that Kalif and TeSlaa will draw Newsome in coverage, which is a good matchup for us due to Kalif's speed and TeSlaa having a 3-inch height advantage.

Overall, as we've all heard, if the offensive line can give Goff the time needed, he will be able to have another good day like he had against the Ravens, spreading the ball around and being his efficient self. The difference will be that it will be the receivers who might be the focus of the passing game due to the matchup, meaning LaPorta and Gibbs might have down weeks in the passing game.

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The Name's Bond, Isaiah Bond: Speaking of receivers, the Cleveland pass catchers haven't been great so far this season. That might be a product of the offensive line play (more on that below) and their quarterbacking, but to put it bluntly, their receivers have been subpar. None of their wide receivers has a PFF receiving grade above 57, and both of their tight ends have receiving grades below 64. The Browns' depth receivers, Jamari Thrash and Isaiah Bond, have only caught four passes for 18 and 27 yards, respectively, and so won't be mentioned in detail due to playing less than 100 snaps on the season so far and the Browns' propensity for using 12 personnel. Thrash is surprisingly one of the two receivers who have posted a positive EPA so far this season, with a +0.09 EPA per target. On the other hand, Bond isn't as effective as his British agent namesake, as he averages -0.50 EPA per target.

Their leading receiver is rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr., with a measly 136 yards. He's been targeted 18 times (15.5% target share) for 15 catches (83.3% catch rate, +11.9% CROE) and 6 first downs, earning him 9.1 yards per reception on a 5.4-yard ADOT. He has a 6.3% drop rate and a 66.7% contested catch success rate (2/3), and a 98.1 passer rating when targeted. He also earns +0.13 EPA per target, has a 13.3% share of third-down targets, and a 10% share in the red zone. All that has earned him a team-leading (for TEs and WRs) 63.5 receiving grade from PFF.

His tight end partner, David Njoku, is the second-highest rated pass catcher per PFF with a 63.3 receiving grade. He has a 66.7% catch rate so far this season (12/18, -4.1% CROE) for 9.8 yards a reception, 4 first downs, and an interception. He has a 15.5% target share and a 6.3-yard ADOT. Njoku hasn't dropped a pass so far this season, and has an 80% contested catch success rate (4/5). The quarterback has a 65.1 passer rating when targeting him. He has a -0.24 EPA per target and a 20% third-down target share, but hasn't been targeted in the red zone yet.

The Browns' best wide receiver is former Vol Cedric Tillman, with a 56.7 receiving grade from PFF. He also has a 15.5% target share, having been targeted 18 times for 10 catches (55.6% catch rate, -9.4% CROE) for 10.0 yards per reception on a 9.0-yard ADOT. He has a 20% third-down target share and a 20% red zone share. He accumulates +0.15 EPA/target, has converted 7 first downs and scored 2 touchdowns on the season, has a 9.1% drop rate and a 50% contested catch success rate (2/4), and an 85.4 passer rating when targeted. As Tillman usually plays on the right-hand side of the formation, he will usually be facing up against D.J. Reed, who so far has been good on his side of the field, only being targeted 11 times this season, with 5 of those targets happening in Week 1 and 3 each in Weeks 2 and 3.

On the opposite side of the field is the star wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, who seemingly can't get on the same page as Flacco. He has had a team-leading 21 targets so far this season (18.1% target share, 23.3% third-down share, no red zone targets). However, he has only caught 10 of these for a 47.6% catch rate (-8.5% CROE), sporting a 23.1% drop rate and a 0% contested catch rate (0/4). He is their field stretcher with a 13.9-yard ADOT, converting 7 first downs but also having 2 of his targets intercepted, leading to a 28.8 passer rating when targeted. Due to where he lines up, he will draw either Arnold or Amik in coverage. Given his high target share, high drop rate and lack of ability in contested catch situations, this might be a good matchup for Arnold to bounce back, or for Amik to get the turnover he promised in the preseason.

The Browns use 12 personnel on 43.9% of their offensive snaps, which is the 2nd-highest rate in the league, with an EPA of -0.18 per play in these sets, which is 25th in the league. The Lions have given up -0.04 EPA per play against 12 personnel sets so far this season, which is 15th in the league. Given how often we like to use our base 4-3 packages (46.1%, 5th most in the league), this allows us to match up well against the Browns' scheme. Branch will likely cover Fannin Jr., Barnes or Anzalone will cover Njoku, and the corners will take on whoever lines up on their side. When the Browns move to 11 personnel, Branch will cover the slot, the linebackers will cover the tight end, and so on. With our recent transition to playing more zone (51.5%, 22nd-most in the league) than man, it has come with some struggles in communication. Given how bad the Browns are through the air currently, this could be a week to play more man coverage concepts, allowing us to stay close to their receivers and limit any YAC possibilities, which could also have the additional benefit of putting less on Arnold's plate mentally, allowing him to play on instinct rather than overthinking.

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Munford, Two Ford, Three Ford, Four: The Browns are in the midst of a crisis at offensive tackle. Their starting left tackle, Dawand Jones, is on season-ending IR, and their starting right tackle, Jack Conklin, is questionable to play and is trending towards not playing, according to reports. This means they are down to backups at both positions, which bodes well for our edge rushers. So far, the Browns have allowed pressure on 35.3% of dropbacks, which ranks 23rd in the league. On those dropbacks, they average -0.95 EPA per play, which ranks 31st. We get pressure on 32.4% of our pass rush snaps, which ranks 16th in the league, allowing -0.58 EPA on those snaps, which is 7th best in the league. Having a fired-up Hutch and AQM rushing against backup tackles, especially with these stats, could lead to another day of havoc in the Cleveland backfield.

Former Lion Cornelius Lucas is projected to start at left tackle on Sunday. He has played 141 pass-blocking snaps so far this season, allowing 19 pressures (5 QB hits and 14 hurries) for a 92.7% pass-blocking efficiency and a 45.2 pass-blocking grade from PFF. At right tackle, the Browns have two likely options: KT Leveston or Thayer Munford Jr. Leveston has a 13.0 pass-blocking grade from PFF, having allowed 6 pressures (2 sacks, 2 hits and 2 hurries) on his 52 passing snaps, earning him a 90.5% pass-blocking efficiency. Munford Jr., who they signed off the Patriots' practice squad recently, has not played a snap so far this season. Last year, he played 123 pass-blocking snaps for the Raiders, earning a 46.6 pass-blocking grade. He allowed 10 pressures (5 sacks, 3 hits and 2 hurries) on those snaps for a 93.6% efficiency. However, they also have former Bears tackle Teven Jenkins on the roster as a guard, who has been perfect in pass protection so far this season (with the huge caveat that he has only played 1 such snap).

Unlike last season, where Hutch was predominantly rushing against the opposition's right tackle, this year our edges are not strictly lining up against a particular tackle, flexing almost evenly between left and right (see screenshot below of Hutch's snap counts so far this season).

This is a good thing; it allows us to play matchups and exploit certain situations in our pass rush plans, and makes it harder for opposing teams to game plan for Hutch in their blocking schemes. If Muhammad is able to play on Sunday, this opens up a lot of things for the pass rush, as the Browns will not be able to focus on Hutch. AQM has rushed the passer 53 times this season, creating 9 pressures (4 sacks, 1 hit and 4 hurries) with a 20.8% pass-rush win rate and a 13.5 Pass Rush Productivity, earning himself an 82.2 pass-rush grade from PFF. Hutch has rushed the passer 95 times, creating 16 pressures (3 sacks, 1 hit and 12 hurries) for an 82.8 pass-rush grade, a 20.7% pass-rush win rate and a 10.9 PRP. Flacco is not Lamar in terms of pocket mobility and scrambling, so while a similar pass rush plan to last week will work initially, the team should not be as worried about containing Flacco, but rather should crush the pocket.

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Let's Hope Special Teams Isn't As Szmyt This Week: I think it has been well documented on the podcast about my issues with our special teams. For whatever reason, our coverage teams on both kickoffs and punts have been lacklustre compared to last year, missing 6 tackles. After ranking 7th in the league last year in team special teams grade with an 87.7, this season we have fallen to 13th with a 71.9 grade. This is likely because of the aforementioned coverage issues, but also because we are averaging 1.33 special teams penalties a game, compared to 0.44 last season. In fact, our 7 penalties on special teams so far this season are 1 less than all the special teams penalties we accumulated last season in 18 games. Similarly, we have already missed more than half the tackles we missed last year (11) in our three games so far.

With Sione Vaki, Daniel Thomas and Zach Cunningham out for tomorrow, we lose some of our best special teamers. Vaki had a 90.5 grade last season, which was the team's best and one of the highest in the league, and his 77.0 grade so far this season is 3rd on the team. Thomas and Cunningham were ranked tied for 3rd on the team in special team snaps with 50, with Thomas' 76.6 grade ranking 4th on the team, and Cunningham's 68.8 grade ranking 7th.

Luckily for us, the Browns rank lower than us with a 67.2 team grade, putting them below league-average at 19th. They have only conceded 2 penalties on special teams thus far, and have missed 5 tackles.

Their kicker, Andre Szmyt, has a 45.0 kickoff grade so far this season (16th in the league), with 81.8% of his kicks being returned for 25.2 yards, allowing the return teams to start at the 29.5-yard line on average. 18.2% of his kicks go for touchbacks, which ranks as the 14th-highest rate in the league. He hasn't fared much better on field goals, missing one extra point (80%, 24th) and one field goal so far this season (80%, 22nd), earning himself a 51.0 grade in this area (29th).

Their return game is also mediocre, with their primary returner in DeAndre Carter boasting a 61.2 return grade so far this season (tied for 53rd). His 11.2 yards per punt return ranks 10th in the league, but is below the league average of 11.7 yards. His 24.2 yards per kick return ranks 29th and is one yard short of the league average.

The bright spot of their special teams unit, according to PFF, is their punter, Corey Bojorquez, who has a 72.3 grade from PFF, which ranks 8th in the league. He has punted 13 times this season, with gross yardage of 47.0 yards (23rd) and net 35.5 (28th). 5 of his punts have landed in the 20, a 38.5% rate which ranks 13th in the league. He leads the league in touchback percentage at 23.1%. He has also had a punt blocked.

While special teams have let us down so far this season, this game should hopefully serve as a reset for the unit, even with some of its best players not being available. It could be as simple as adjusting our blocking schemes, opening up more lanes for our returners and making it harder for their returners to get yards.

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Hot Take: Amik picks off Flacco and houses it.

Score Prediction: Monday night was a real wake-up call for the league. We can presume at this point that Week 1 was nothing but a mirage of the madness that is the opening week of the NFL. While the Browns have the best defensive line we'll have faced since then, the communication on the interior has been much better, and we'll be at home, so we can say this trend should continue. Conversely, while the Ravens' offensive line has had their struggles so far this season, the Browns' is much worse on paper, so we should have the advantage there. Adding in what I've discussed above, this should be a game we win handily on paper, and on the field of play.

Cleveland Browns 17, Detroit Lions 34

How do you think the game will go? Will we continue our form and beat the Browns, or will we lay a Cleveland steamer at home?

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