Knight (Jr.) Rider

The Lions' conquest of the AFC North continues with the final of their three-week stand against the rival division. This week, they make the trek to Cincinnati, Ohio, to take on the floundering Bengals. Just like last week, this looks to be an easy matchup on paper. However, we cannot overlook any team, especially one with two damn good outside receivers when both our starting corners are presumed out for Sunday. So what are the matchups that could prove key for another Lions victory on Sunday? And could Detroit go 3-0 against the state of Ohio within the rough span of a week?

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Turning the Corner: In a divergence from the norm, I am devoting a section to a Lions issue. As we all know by now (hopefully, unless the nerves of a potential Tigers' collapse had you hiding under a rock), we will play on Sunday without our starting outside corners. Reed has been placed on IR, and Arnold is off the injury report with his shoulder injury, but is not certain to start. Who will be cornerback 3 to cover for Arnold if his injury flares up. There are three candidates to step in: the incumbent in Rock-Ya Sin, and recent practice squad signings Tre Flowers and Nick Whiteside. Who should step in to man the boundary if we have another injury?

My vote is for Rock-Ya Sin, due to his experience (over 3,000 career snaps) and the fact that he's been in the system all season. He has the frame for outside corner (6'0", 195 lbs), and in his bit-part appearances so far this season, he has played reasonably well. So far this season, he has posted a 54.0 grade, though this is heavily weighed down by a 33.4 grade for Week 1. In that game, he scored the average grade in both run defence and coverage, yet his game grade was much lower than that. It's the same story for his coverage grade. I can almost hear Ant chuckling about how bad PFF grades are compared to the tape as I write this. Looking at his grades individually (see screenshot below), you can see Rock hasn't been bad when he has been called into action. He has been targeted once so far this season, which was last week, and he didn't allow a catch. He has also made 3 solo tackles and a further assisted tackle, not missing any of his attempts. At worst, Ya-Sin offers us a safe floor at corner in terms of run defence, and any potential coverage issues could be mitigated by having safety help over the top.

Of course, we recently signed two corners to our practice squad, as I mentioned above. Nick Whiteside is the most familiar, as he was with the team in the preseason. In those games, he played 117 snaps, and he looked good in Weeks 2 and 3 (see screenshot below). However, his coverage grade dropped from Week 2 to 4, and his tackling fell off a cliff in Week 4, perhaps leading to him being a free agent up to this week when we signed him. He does have the frame to handle Chase and Higgins on the outside, being 6'1", 200 lbs. However, given his lack of regular-season experience (15 snaps for the Commanders in 2023), if we were to elevate him from the practice squad, it would be a reserve option in case of injury rather than to come straight into the starting lineup.

The final option, whose surname I know sends shivers down the spines of Lions fans (though those chills for Matt are likely more pleasant than for everyone else), is Tre Flowers. Flowers definitely has the frame of an outside corner, standing at 6'3" and weighing 200 lbs. He is heavily experienced, having played nearly 3,500 snaps over his career. Historically, he fits what we like in our outside corners as well, with high grades in run defence and tackling over his career. Most recently, he played for the Bears in the preseason (see screenshot below), performing quite well but not making the 53-man roster after the cuts. If he can grasp our system, which shouldn't be hard for a veteran like him, he should at least be elevated from the practice squad in a reserve role, before stepping into a starting role next week against the Chiefs, opposite either Arnold or Amik.

For me, Rock is now CB3 with Dorsey out with his wrist injury (it's worth bearing in mind it was Dorsey who came in first last week against the Browns, then Rock took over after his seeming concussion). However, I would elevate Flowers from the practice squad as the last guy off the bench, as we can presume, given his veteran status, he should be able to step in in extreme emergency and he has been historically good on special teams as well (he has been graded above a 67.0 by PFF on special teams in all but one of his seasons in the league).

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Such a Trey-Hard:

[It has since come out that Taylor Decker is doubtful to play in the game in question, so take this section with a grain of salt and disregard the stats about Decker]

Just like last week, Taylor Decker faces a matchup against a top edge rusher. Trey Hendrickson has lined up against the left tackle on 87% of his snaps (173/199) so far this season. In Weeks 1 and 2, Hendrickson posted defence grades of 88.1 and 84.5, including pass-rush grades of 90.2 and 82.6, respectively. In those games, he recorded 14 pressures (2 sacks, 4 QB hits, and 8 hurries). Since then, his grades have tanked to 54.9 and 59.4 over the past two weeks, including 60.0 and 64.5 in pass rush. He has posted 1 hit and 4 hurries in those two games combined. This could be due to a dip in snaps in passing situations, as the opposing offences don't need to pass as much. This bears out in the stats, as his pass-rush snaps have gone down by roughly 40, from 39 and 33, to 25 and 28. Given how effectively we can run the ball, this trend of lower pass-rushing snaps looks to continue this week.

As for Decker, despite carrying his lingering shoulder injury, he has played pretty well so far this season, despite what PFF says. So far this season, he has allowed 10 pressures (1 sack, 1 hit, and 8 hurries) for a 95.7% pass-blocking efficiency. Across Weeks 1 to 3, his pass-blocking grade never dipped below 72.5, but in Week 4, PFF gave him a 25.9 grade. This is perhaps due to a bias towards Garrett (insomuch that PFF would give him the win, and therefore Decker the loss, on ambiguous snaps) and a misunderstanding of what the intention of our blocking scheme was. As mentioned above, the Lions could "protect" Decker slightly by shifting to a run-heavy focus, allowing Decker to dictate terms to Hendrickson instead of being reactive to his moves. Decker has posted a 62.3 grade in run blocking so far this season, but that includes an 84.1 grade against Baltimore, where we did have a run-heavy bias (Decker played 37 run-blocking snaps and 31 pass-blocking snaps). Therefore, given the presumed game script of Sunday, this could be a good game for Decker and another dip in Hendrickson's production.

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Cover Band: We have heard all week about how vulnerable the Bengals' run defence is (despite their coordinator's focus on it). However, their cornerback room is also not the best, and can also be attacked in coverage. They currently allow 0.13 EPA/dropback, which ranks 22nd in the league. They also allow a 10.2% explosive play rate, which is 19th. Against 11 personnel, they allow 0.07 EPA/play, which ranks 23rd, and against plays from under center (which we run the 3rd-most in the league at 51.6%), they allow 0.09 EPA/play, which is 24th. They run single safety looks on 60.6% of their defensive snaps, but allow 0.16 EPA/play in those looks, which ranks 22nd. On short throws, they allow 0.15 EPA/play, which ranks 25th, and 0.34 EPA/play on intermediate throws (the bread and butter of our offence), which is 15th.

Their best cover corner is their nickelback, Dax Hill. He has earned a 70.3 coverage grade from PFF so far this season. He has played 160 snaps in coverage, being targeted 31 times (5.2 snaps per target) for 25 catches (80.6% catch rate), 8.6 yards per reception, one interception, and one touchdown. His ADOT is 4.5 yards, and his passer rating when targeted is 92.9. Their best outside cover corner is Josh Newton, who took over for Cam Taylor-Britt after his benching before the Broncos game. Newton has played 95 coverage snaps, earning a 59.6 coverage grade. He has been targeted 13 times (7.3 snaps per target) for 7 catches (53.8%) for 6.1 yards per reception, one forced incompletion and one touchdown. He has an ADOT of 7.5 yards and an 86.4 passer rating when targeted. On the other side of the defence is DJ Turner II with a 58.9 coverage grade. He has played 155 coverage snaps, on which he has been targeted 18 times (8.6 snaps per target). He has allowed 9 catches (50.0% catch rate) for 6.1 yards a reception, 4 forced incompletions (3 PBUs), 1 interception and a touchdown. He has a 76.2 passer rating when targeted, and a 12.9-yard ADOT.

If our pass protection can hold up, the Bengals' secondary is there for the taking. This could be a great bounce-back game for the likes of Jamo, especially, as with the Bengals looking to load the box and play man coverage on the outside, he should get some looks to burn them deep. Amon-Ra might draw a tough matchup against Hill, but the stats suggest that he will still be able to function as the chain-mover of the offence if needed. The weakness of the secondary could also prove useful for TeSlaa to get some more looks as we look to expand his route tree, using his size and speed to get separation from their outside corners. Overall, the matchups are there on the ground for Morton and Goff to bend this Bengals defence every which way if they so choose.

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Hot Take: LaPorta catches a touchdown off a play-action bootleg.

Score Prediction: This, like last week, appears to be an easy matchup on paper. The Bengals' defence isn't on the level of the Browns', their offence lacks the rushing threat Judkins gave Cleveland, and somehow, Cincinnati are even worse at passing the ball despite having two great receivers. Yet we can't overlook them. If our outside corners don't play well, Higgins and Chase could eat on the 50:50 deep balls. Yet, given our strength in terms of personnel and coaching, I can see the coaching staff devising a game plan to exploit their weaknesses and secure the win.

Detroit Lions 37, Cincinnati Bengals 7

How do you think the game will go? Will we continue our form and beat the Bengals, or will a tiger-based team break our hearts this week?

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