Bucs @ Lions Game Preview
- Ash Soden
- Oct 19
- 5 min read
Well, we kinda fell on our faces on Monday Night Football, didn't we? For a number of factors, both in and out of our hands, we just didn't turn up on the national stage. But that is by the by; it is a new week, and Tampa Bay is setting sail for Ford Field to play our Lions at Ford Field.
After consulting with my many, many, 10 fans, and in hopes of changing our fates, I'm changing up how I do my game previews. Instead of the traditional, old-school approach of breaking down every detail, or the old matchup style I used to employ, I will now focus on three or four key statistics that I believe will prove crucial in the game ahead. Let's dive into the Bucs-Lions game preview.
+0.01 EPA/play versus the blitz:
The Bucs' offensive EPA per play drops from 4th-best (+0.43) to 18th (+0.01) when they are blitzed compared to when they are not.
The Bucs have faced a blitz on 31.8% of their plays, which is the 12th-most in the league. This drop in EPA could be a symptom of their weakened offensive line, and the lack of short throws in their scheme (they throw within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage the 2nd-least in the league [59.8%]). However, the Bucs' EPA when pressured is the 6th-highest in the league (-0.07) on the 23rd-best pressure rate (33.2%), suggesting that Baker is better against traditional 4-man rushes than the average quarterback.
In comparison, the Lions have blitzed the 9th-most in the league so far this season (33.6%), with their EPA per play on these plays also ranking 9th (-0.10), compared to a non-blitz EPA of +0.11 (23rd). When the Lions' defence gets pressure, which happens on 32.3% of their plays (12th), their EPA ranks 3rd-best in the league (-0.67).
Therefore, the statistics suggest that the Lions should send blitzes at Baker, forcing him to speed up his process. With the weakened Bucs receiver room (no Godwin, and Evans and Egbuka are currently questionable to play), we can put him into unfavourable situations that could lead to turnovers.
-0.27 EPA/rush versus light boxes:
The Bucs' rushing offence is the worst in the league when facing light boxes (-0.27 EPA per play ranks 32nd in the league).
Given the talent usually available to the Bucs in their receiver room, they face light boxes on 69.3% of their offensive plays (11th-most in the league). This should, in theory, make it easier for them to run the ball as they have fewer defenders in the run lanes to block. However, as stated above, they are the worst team in the league at running the ball in these situations. They are also the worst in the league for EPA on outside rushes (-0.23), despite this being their primary rush concept (50.4%, 12th in the league).
In comparison, the Lions have deployed light boxes on 37.9% of their plays, which is the 4th-least in the league. However, given how good our linebackers have been in run defence, and how our defensive line is arguably designed to stop the run, it should not be a surprise that they have the best EPA in these situations (-0.32). They are also the 2nd-best defence against outside runs (-0.24), facing it on 50% of their plays (12th-most), though this is likely due to how good our starting secondary is at run defence.
Therefore, the statistics suggest that the Lions' defence should lean into using more light boxes, not only due to the deficiencies in the secondary, but also because the Bucs have struggled to run the ball in these situations, making it a weakness on strength from their point of view.
+0.55 EPA/play against play action passes:
The Bucs' defence is ranked 31st in the league against play-action passes (+0.55).
Tampa Bay has only faced play-action passes on 17.8% of its plays, which ranks 29th in the league. However, they give up the second-most EPA per play in the league on these passes. This could be because of how poorly their linebackers are playing in coverage so far this season, allowing tight ends, slot receivers and running backs to get separation on them for easy catches. On the other side, the Lions use play-action passes on 23.5% of their offensive plays (15th-most), yet they have the best EPA on these plays (0.60).
Therefore, given how susceptible the Bucs' defence is to these kinds of plays, it stands to reason that the Lions should lean into this part of their identity to move the ball. It also means not straying from the run, using both Gibbs and Monty to keep their linebackers and safeties honest, allowing LaPorta and Amon-Ra to eat over the middle.
+0.19 EPA/play against short passes:
The Bucs' defence is the 29th-ranked defence against short passes so far this season (+0.19).
Currently, the Bucs' defence faces short passes on 70.7% of dropbacks, which is the 9th-most in the league. On these plays, they give up the 4th-most EPA. The Bucs have faced a blitz on 31.8% of their plays, which is the 12th-most in the league. This could be the aforementioned issue with their linebackers in coverage, the fact that their second outside corner position has not been consistently filled, and that offences might be scheming up quick short passes to get the ball out before the blitzes Bowles is known for get home (the Bucs blitz on 36.4% of plays, which is the 6th-highest rate in the league). The Bucs have also given up the 4th-most YAC this season (770 yards).
Conversely, the Lions have the best EPA on short passes (+0.30), targeting this area of the field on 70.3% of their passes (9th-most in the league). Furthermore, the Lions also have the best EPA against the blitz (+0.81), suggesting that the Bucs' supposed strength will prove a weakness against Goff and the Lions' offence. The Lions have also gained the 7th-most YAC so far this season (732 yards).
Therefore, Morton will be wise to scheme up quick-hitting passes that get the ball out of Goff's hands quickly, allowing our playmakers to get upfield and create yards after the catch. Not only will this help against the Bucs' blitz-heavy scheme, but it will also exploit their weakness with one of our biggest strengths.
Opposing Starters:
Hot Take: Jamo will have over 100 scrimmage yards
Score Prediction: This will be a tough, tight game. With our missing secondary (four out of the five starters going into the season not playing through injury and suspension, some of the top depth pieces also out due to injury), going up against an MVP-candidate quarterback, it's a recipe for disaster. However, two of their top 4 receivers are definitely out due to injury, and the other two are questionable to play with injuries. This game could turn into a slugfest of good, quick passes, running the ball, and defensive stops. In a rowdy environment like Ford Field, which should be fired up after all the controversy of this week, with a superstar returning from his injury; the odds do shift in the Lions' favour. The Bucs are used to last-minute wins this season, and we all know the "Cardiac Cats" moniker this team has carried at times. This game could, and probably will, go to a game of whoever has the ball last wins. I see that being our Lions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24, Detroit Lions 27
How do you think the game will go? Will the Lions leave the Bucs as black and blue as our Motor City Muscle uniforms, or will the Bucs raid Ford Field for a win?
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look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts