Vikings @ Lions Game Preview
- Ash Soden
- 3 hours ago
- 4 min read
I hope y'all enjoyed the bye week and your break from Lions football (though damn, were most of those early slate games bad or what?). Luckily for us, Detroit is back this week, hosting Minnie Mouse-sota for a divisional ding-dong battle. We're rested off a bye, they're semi-rested after playing on Thursday Night Football last week. This ain't like last year though. They're back to starting JJ McCarthy; we're still riding the Goff train. They're the only team in the division with a losing record, we're half a game back from the division lead (damn you pesky Cowgirls and Packers...).
What could be some of the key stats that could decide the game in our favour? Let's have a look at the (defensively themed) Vikings Lions preview.
Under Center:
The Vikings have gone under center on 39.0% of their offensive plays, which is the 8th-highest rate in the league. On those plays, they have created -0.20 EPA per play, which is the worst in the league. In comparison, the Lions' defence has faced under center plays on 26.9% of their snaps, which is 23rd in the league. On those plays, they have allowed -0.07 EPA per play, which is the 9th-best in the league.
They may be due to the inconsistency they have had on offence so far this season. They have started two quarterbacks, two centers, two running backs, and have had various other injuries across their offensive line. Therefore, they might not have gotten the chemistry down to fully execute these plays, leading to negative plays that'll lower their EPA in these situations.
Therefore, if the linebackers can key into them being under center and get the rest of the defence into the right play, we might be able to take advantage and create some turnovers.
Play Action
For the same issues mentioned above, the Vikings have also struggled executing play-action passes. They use play action at the 10th-highest rate in the league (26.3%), yet only create -0.11 EPA per play on those passes, which is 28th in the league. Conversely, the Lions face play action on 22.3% of plays, which is the 18th-highest rate in the league. On those plays, they concede -0.09 EPA, which is the 4th-best in the league.
This likely comes down to the high level of play we've gotten from our linebackers so far this season, and how our proclivity for using base personnel allows us to defend the run and pass in the same formations. All three of our linebackers currently rank within the top 28 for their position according to PFF [50% snap filter]. Campbell leads the way with an 89.0 grade, which is the 2nd-best in the league (behind Fred Warner), Anzalone ranks 19th with a 70.7 grade, and Barnes ranks 26th with a 64.9 grade.. Base looks allow us to prevent teams from exploiting our personnel with matchups by running out of 11 or passing out of heavier looks, as we will defend both with the same players.
Therefore, so long as our linebackers continue their good run of form, we should be able to shut down a key aspect of the Vikings' offence, albeit one they struggle with.
11 Personnel
The Vikings use 11 personnel at the 6th-highest rate in the league (71.6% of offensive plays). However, as is perhaps the theme of this preview, they aren't good at using it. On these plays, they average -0.09 EPA per play, which is 26th in the league. On our side of things, we face 11 on 49.5% of our defensive plays (2nd-lowest rate in the league). On those plays, we concede -0.03 EPA per play, which is the 8th-best in the league.
This comes down to the aforementioned usage of base personnel and the role Branch plays in our defence. We use 1 high coverage on 61.2% of our defensive snaps (6th-most in the league), allowing -0.07 EPA per play (8th-best in the league). In these coverages, Kerby plays the single high role that he is best in, while Branch moves down into the box to act as a slot safety, covering the slot receiver. That ability allows us to keep our base defence on the field, allowing us to not let the offence key off our players to gain matchups.
Therefore, if we can continue our high level of play and can continue to lean on our best coverages and defensive packages, we should be able to still neutralise the Vikings' 11 personnel looks (29th in the league versus 1 high looks [-0.16 EPA per play]), while still staying in our base defence.
Purple: top 10% of players in their position according to PFF grade
Green: top 25%
Yellow: top 50%
Orange: top 75%
Red: bottom 25%
Hot Take: Amik continues his vendetta against LSU receivers, locking down Jefferson to less than 75 yards and no scores.
Score Prediction: A "rookie" QB behind a depleted offensive line against our in-form defence, including a now fully ready Alim McNeill, an Aidan Hutchinson who has 180 million coins adding some weight to his bullrush, and a secondary getting healthier after holding an MVP-candidate Baker to 9 points. That's surely going to be fun for Minnesota. Conversely, a defence that has been subpar so far this season against one of the few QBs who can decipher their blitzes, a receiving core that includes a speedster who needs more targets, a Viking-killer Sun God and a guy who gets a chance at least twice a year to show up the guy he replaced, and a backfield of running backs that has no equal in this league. At Ford Field, where I hope the crowd will be wild and crazy after a week away from the sweet, sweet joy of Lions football. Gimme our Lions to once again score 30 on their defence, and a win by 2 scores.
Minnesota Vikings 17, Detroit Lions 31
How do you think the game will go? Will we roar on to another victory against the Vikings, or will they raid Ford Field for a rare win against us?
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look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts