Lions @ Eagles Game Preview
- Ash Soden
- 3 days ago
- 6 min read
Ah, wasn't it great to get back to winning ways last week? Yes, the Commanders were not the same generals we ran into in last season's Divisional Round, but we still avenged that loss and purged most of the negative aura around the team. This week, we stay on the road for the second of our three-week jaunt in the NFC East. However, we take on the reigning Super Bowl champs this time, rather than a battered-and-bruised team still looking over their shoulders for Senator McCarthy.
Our injury report has more questions than the entrance exam to Oxford, but one thing I hope this Lions Eagles game preview doesn't leave you with is further inquiries. What ways do the stats point to for a successful Lions game plan? Let's take a look, shall we?
Play (Action) That Funky Music:
To the surprise of none of you (I hope), we are darn good at play action. We rank 9th in the league in usage of the concept (26.2%), with a notable 100% spike in use last week (23.6% in Weeks 1-9 to 48.6% in Week 10). On those plays, we gain the 3rd-most EPA per play (+0.43). On the other side of the game, the Eagles' defence isn't so hot against play action. They face it on 23.5% of dropbacks (15th-most in the league), but they give up the 4th-most EPA per play on these concepts (+0.31).
Why might that be? The Eagles are not outstanding in any blitz stats, ranking around league average in blitz rate (27.5%, 19th), early blitz rate (27.7%, 15th), first down blitz rate (21.0%, 22nd), motion blitzing (28.4%, 21st), and simulated blitz rate (10.3%, 10th), as well as ranking second-to-last in blitzes with 6-or-more defenders coming (3.2%). So while their defence can be quite aggressive, it isn't that per se. Both their starting inside linebackers also grade fairly well in coverage, with both scoring coverage grades above 73.5 from PFF, placing them in the top 12 for all linebackers with at least 40 coverage snaps in the season (filter chosen to include Dean, who only has 68 such snaps due to his injury earlier this season).
Therefore, one can theorise that this weakness against play action comes from a natural inclination to defend the run first, which means their linebackers are liable to bite on play fakes. Likewise, due to their usual 2-4-5 personnel on defence, they could be naturally weaker against those kinds of plays that prey on drawing the "front seven" in. Either way, play action is something we can lean into to get open throws, especially over the middle, where we will have to scheme up separation for our tight ends with LaPorta out.
Danny's Dozen:
As much as we hate seeing it, and as painful as it might be to run without Sam on the field, we are pretty damn good with 12 personnel on the field. We have run 12 personnel on 33.7% of our offensive plays, which is the 6th-most in the league, although this rate dipped last week to 16.2%. On those plays, we've gained +0.14 EPA per play, which is also the 6th-most in the league. Conversely, the Eagles have faced 12 personnel on 21.7% of their defensive plays, which is around league average (15th), but they have given up +0.13 EPA/play, which ranks 25th.
This weakness comes due to their propensity for playing nickel packages. They are in nickel at 74.4% of their defensive plays, which is the 5th-most in the league. This means that usually one tight end is lined up against a linebacker or even sometimes an edge, creating a mismatch that the offence can exploit. However, this week, this might be harder for the Lions to do with LaPorta on IR, and Wright questionable. It will likely fall to Ross Dwelley to fill this void. However, I could also see the Lions leaning into rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa's experience at Arkansas if he's active, playing him in a big slot/move tight end role like the one he performed in Fayetteville, to not only get him more snaps on offence, but also to allow us to play a kind of pseudo-12 personnel look. If not, practice squad elevation Jackson Meeks has been getting some run as a H-back/F-tight end in practice, so he could also take some snaps in certain situations in this role.
Therefore, while we shouldn't shy away from using 12 personnel, we should use it sparingly to maximise its efficiency, while also looking to punish the Eagles when we do use it by mixing it in with play action and boots so their linebackers cannot key in and create negative plays.
Pie in the Sky, Playing Two High:
For once, this is me advocating for a change in strategy, especially on defence. We all know how big a fan I am of our single-high coverages, especially when our starting safeties are Kerby and Branch, as this style plays into their strengths while allowing us to match up well against a variety of offensive formations. However, against the Eagles, partly due to the injuries in our secondary, I'm calling for more 2-high coverages.
So far this season, we've used 2-high coverages on 38.1% of our defensive plays, which ranks 26th in the league. However, on those plays, we've allowed -0.04 EPA per play, which ranks 7th. The Eagles have faced 2-high on 44.2% of their offensive plays, which ranks as the 9th-most in the league. However, on those plays, they have only generated +0.03 EPA per play, which ranks 17th in the league. This is because 2-high coverages usually limit the deep passing game, which is what their scheme predicates on. They rank 2nd in the league for deep passes (15.8%) and EPA generated on those passes (+1.17), compared to league average in short throws (68.0%, 16th) and near the bottom of the league in intermediate throws (16.2%, 29th).
Therefore, with Arnold out with his concussion, and Kerby still out with his knee injury, moving to more 2-high coverages, paired with a more zone-heavy look (as has been suggested elsewhere), could allow Shep to cover for any deficiencies in coverage by exploiting weaknesses in the Eagles' passing game and put our corners in more favourable situations.
Lighten Up:
Another way we can help the backend in coverage is to lighten the box, dedicating more resources to coverage. Moving to 2-high looks will help do this, as it will move Branch out of the box into split shell alignments. While this might seem counterintuitive, as they have Saquon Barkley, the stats do back up this approach.
We have shown light boxes on 33.1% of our defensive plays, which is dead last in the league. However, on those plays, we have the 3rd-best EPA per play in the league (-0.21). Conversely, the Eagles have faced light boxes on 53.8% of their plays, which ranks 24th in the league. On those plays, they have lost EPA, generating -0.11 EPA per play, which ranks 20th in the league.
Therefore, while lightening the box might go against our tendencies and will invite the Eagles to run the ball against us, the stats show that this might help us. This is the case, as they also rank 31st in inside run EPA (-0.25 EPA/play). Therefore, running inside against a lightened box should be challenging for them, allowing us to focus on coverage and containing Hurts.
Starters:
Purple: top 10% of players in their position according to PFF grade
Green: top 25%
Yellow: top 50%
Orange: top 75%
Red: bottom 25%
Hot Take: Barnes has his best game of the season so far, logging a sack and an interception in his SAM role
Score Prediction: This is a tough game to predict. In a lot of areas, it looks like strength on strength, great team versus great team. The injury factor and homefield advantage weigh the scales in their favour, but the consistency of our offence, statistically wise (even when Morton was calling plays), weighs the scales in our favour as we look to be the ones more likely to score every time we touch the ball. This game will be close and will probably come down to who has the ball last. But I gotta be biased and give our Lions the edge.
Philadelphia Eagles 20, Detroit Lions 24
How do you think the game will go? Will we get one step closer to the 1 seed in the NFC again, or will the reigning champs be just too much for us right now?
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look forward to your conclusions on these players/positions after the game today, ty
Thanks Ash, RE TE's - Just to reiterate what Riz said ,& its worth noting what the Lions want their TE3 /4 to do, and how many game reps they'll actually get . Parker Hesse has been taking most Reps in camp primairly as blocker ( & FB ). Mitchel hasn't performed BUT, can Block & has some ST value,& was a draft pick. Zylstra is the best receiver -,but can't block - heresey on this team. So.........bearing in what Campbell said about the WR room ie its about the best players , irrespective of position......how about.......Mitchel as TE4 , & Zylstra ( TE5 ) taking the place of of WR5 ?
Ash, thank you so much for doing these. You and the rest of the ROTL UK gang are fantastic!
Greetings, I was glad to listen to your interesting interview. The season went really well. I liked the quality of your broadcast, which application did you use for this? Is it on this list? I just want to do live broadcasts